709
FXUS63 KMPX 161740
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SUNDAY
EVENING & MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HAIL & A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE EARLIER IN THE
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
ANVIL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT,
MEANING WE'LL SEE PLENTY OF SUN TO KICK OFF WHAT IS SHAPING P TO
BE A VERY PLEASANT SPRING SATURDAY. VERY DRY HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED FOR ONE MORE DAY, BUT LIGHTER WINDS TODAY WILL
MITIGATE ANY HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OFF AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING NEAR THE SD/NE/IA BORDER REGION & LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE. MODELS HAVE ALL COME INTO CONSENSUS FOR THE MOST
PART THIS EVENING WITH KEEPING THESE STORMS SOUTH OF THE IA/MN
BORDER TODAY, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR SOUTH COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS & THUNDER TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, BUT THIS WOULD
HAVE A LOW CHANCE AT BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. MODELS THEN
BECOME WIDELY VARIED ON WHAT HAPPENS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE
LEGACY/AI GLOBAL-SCALE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL FAVORING SOME
SORT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, BUT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS REMAINING EITHER DRY OR MUCH
MORE SPARSE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION. WILE THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WON'T CONTAIN ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY
RAINFALL, IT WILL INFLUENCE WHAT KIND OF ENVIRONMENT WE CAN
DEVELOP FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON & NIGHT.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA, AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES POTENTIALLY
LEAD TO CAPE VALUES UP TO 2000-3000 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH DEEP SHEAR VALUES INCREASING OVER
50 KTS. HOWEVER, THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON WHAT KIND OF PRECIPITATION (IF ANY )
WE SEE SUNDAY MORNING, & HOW LONG THAT CLOUD COVER LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IDEA FROM THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS IS THAT A FEW DISCRETE STORMS WILL FORM OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY REMAINING DISCRETE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE INITIAL DISCRETE
STORMS COULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN THE WIND SHEAR VALUES,
MEANING LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY 2-3" IN DIAMETER) & A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THESE
STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A LINE OF STORMS, OR
MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS, & CONTINUE EASTWARDS THROUGH MINNESOTA
& INTO WISCONSIN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING & OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ONCE THIS
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STORM MODE OCCURS, WITH THE THREAT
LIKELY WANING ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN AS
THE STORMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT & LATER. WE'LL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TIMING TRENDS AS HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS STILL
REMAIN VARIED ON WHEN THE INITIAL STORMS INITIATE TO OUR WEST &
HOW LONG THE EVENT TAKES TO UNFOLD AS STORM MOVE EAST INTO
WISCONSIN. IN GENERAL, THE EARLIER STORMS DEVELOP & MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA, THE GREATER CHANCE WE'LL HAVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS EVENT.
CONFIDENCE GREATLY DECREASES ONCE WE GET PAST THE STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT ANOTHER ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
COULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING. HOWEVER, HOW MONDAY
UNFOLDS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW THE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
UNFOLD, & WHETHER WE SEE ANY SECONDARY CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON INTO MONDAY MORNING. GENERALLY,
MONDAY'S THREAT DOES LOOK TO BE MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ACROSS IOWA & SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
THE ATMOSPHERE EVOLVES THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY & WHERE ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY SET UP.
IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY,
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BRING OUR FIRST CHANCE AT A SOAKING
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MONTH. SUNDAY NIGHT'S STORMS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL, WITH HREF/REFS PROBABILITY-MATCHED PRECIPITATION
INDICATING AMOUNTS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON WHERE THOSE STORMS END UP. WE DO
LOOK TO DRY OUT & RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMEPRATURES ONCE WE
GET PAST OUR STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR AND QUIET TO OPEN THE 18Z PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL MN. WINDS WILL RELAX THIS
EVENING AND TURN EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. THE NEW TAF PACKAGE
INCLUDES THE ADDITION OF STRONGER EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AFTER 12Z,
WITH PEAK GUSTS FORECAST TO TOP OUT NEAR 30KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR AND AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. LATEST HI-RES MODELS DEPICT A FEW THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IA INTO SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI
EARLY SUNDAY. THE TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION TO ALMOST "SPLIT" THE TERMINALS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST, WHICH DOES ADD UNCERTAINTY INTO THE NEW
PROB30 WINDOWS. CONCEPTUALLY, THERE SHOULD BE A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A NORTHWARD ADVANCING MOISTURE
SURGE TONIGHT, SO WE'VE OPTED TO INCLUDE -SHRA MENTION AT ALL
TERMINALS AND WILL LOOK TO FORTHCOMING TAF PACKAGES TO REFINE
TIMING. ADDITIONALLY, WE INCLUDED A TS MENTION AT MKT/RWF GIVEN
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY CAPTURED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOLLOWING THE
MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
AND BKN HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS.
KMSP...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND TURN EASTERLY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY. PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. WE'VE MAINTAINED A PROB30 FROM 13-18Z FOR RAIN SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WE'VE LEANED ON A BLEND OF HI-RES AND
LEGACY GLOBAL MODELS TO RUN WITH THE 5-HOUR PROB30 WINDOW. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NEED TO ADD IN A TS MENTION BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TONIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS DISTANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...-SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY, IFR/MVFR. WIND NNW 10-15G20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NNW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-TODD.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...STRUS
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