537
FXUS63 KMPX 162022
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
- QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30% RANGE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL END
UP IN THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS PROMPTED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS
AND FUELS BUT LIGHTER WINDS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA TONIGHT. GUIDANCE BRINGS THE
THETA-E GRADIENT INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONCEPTUALLY,
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED T-STORMS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE EXACT EVOLUTION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE TRYING TO SPLIT THE TWIN CITIES AREA
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF US SUNDAY MORNING. IF AN
ORGANIZED MCV MOVES OUT OF NEBRASKA - THIS COULD INFLUENCE THE
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULDN'T BE
SEVERE, BUT COULD LEAD TO A WET START TO THE DAY.
ON SUNDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECAY AND EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND INSTABILITY TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION.
OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN ACTIVE STRETCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ASSUMING WE'RE ABLE TO DRY OUT AND RECOVER,
STEEP LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE SHEAR, AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SW AND SC MN
SHOW A LEGITIMATE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE FORCING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. I
FELT BETTER ABOUT THE SET UP TWO DAYS AGO THAN I DO NOW. SLOWER
TIMING & A WEAKER SHORTWAVE LIKELY LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS SE SD/E NE/NW IA/FAR SW MN.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. THESE STORMS WILL CONGEAL SUNDAY
EVENING AS THEY TREK EAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN/EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD WILL BECOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ONCE STORM MODE TURNS LINEAR SUNDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD SUPPORT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
BRIEF QLCS TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY WANE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LINE OF STORMS TRACKS
EAST INTO WISCONSIN.
FOR MONDAY, THE SEVERE RISK REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON SUNDAY'S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WHERE THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN ON
MONDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE AN MCS MOVES THROUGH AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARIES
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT
ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP REMAINS SIMILAR WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND EAU
CLAIRE, WI. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
ALLOW AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST IN IOWA/WI/IL BUT THE UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT WE'RE LEFT
WITH MONDAY AM IS LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR S/E
AREAS. THE DAY 3 SWO FROM SPC DID INCLUDE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE RISK AREAS. THERE IS STILL A CONCERN ACROSS SC &
FAR EAST MN AND WESTERN WI FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO HIT 60.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE
THROUGH, BUT THE SIGNAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL WEATHER
APPEARS LIMITED IN THE LONG TERM FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR AND QUIET TO OPEN THE 18Z PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL MN. WINDS WILL RELAX THIS
EVENING AND TURN EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. THE NEW TAF PACKAGE
INCLUDES THE ADDITION OF STRONGER EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AFTER 12Z,
WITH PEAK GUSTS FORECAST TO TOP OUT NEAR 30KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR AND AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. LATEST HI-RES MODELS DEPICT A FEW THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IA INTO SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI
EARLY SUNDAY. THE TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION TO ALMOST "SPLIT" THE TERMINALS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST, WHICH DOES ADD UNCERTAINTY INTO THE NEW
PROB30 WINDOWS. CONCEPTUALLY, THERE SHOULD BE A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A NORTHWARD ADVANCING MOISTURE
SURGE TONIGHT, SO WE'VE OPTED TO INCLUDE -SHRA MENTION AT ALL
TERMINALS AND WILL LOOK TO FORTHCOMING TAF PACKAGES TO REFINE
TIMING. ADDITIONALLY, WE INCLUDED A TS MENTION AT MKT/RWF GIVEN
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY CAPTURED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOLLOWING THE
MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
AND BKN HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS.
KMSP...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND TURN EASTERLY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY. PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. WE'VE MAINTAINED A PROB30 FROM 13-18Z FOR RAIN SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WE'VE LEANED ON A BLEND OF HI-RES AND
LEGACY GLOBAL MODELS TO RUN WITH THE 5-HOUR PROB30 WINDOW. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NEED TO ADD IN A TS MENTION BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TONIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS DISTANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...-SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY, IFR/MVFR. WIND NNW 10-15G20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NNW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-TODD.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...STRUS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page