847
FXUS63 KMPX 170128
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
828 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
- QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 814 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE ISSUE IS THAT
WE'VE SEEN CONVECTION STRADDLE THE MO/IA BORDER, THIS SHOULD
GENERATE AN MCV, BUT THAT LOOKS TO HEAD FOR SOUTHERN WI. THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BACK ACROSS MT, WITH THE LLJ
ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT DRIVING A HIGHER PRECIP THREAT
INTO NODAK. THIS LEAVES US STUCK IN A BIT OF A NO-MANS LAND WITH
NEBULOUS FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION AT BEST. WE'VE STARTED TO
SLOWLY PULL BACK ON POPS THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT HAVEN'T
COMPLETELY PULLED OUT THE RUG ON OUR PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
MORNING YET. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 2AM AND 9AM. THIS WOULD BE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING IN FROM IOWA. THE MODEL
SPREAD GETS NO BETTER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOST MODELS
SHOW A QLCS DEVELOPING SUNDAY EVENING, THOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE LATITUDINAL POSITION VARIATION. WE WILL SAY, IF WE
DON'T SEE MUCH CONVETION SUNDAY MORNING, IT WILL GIVE US AN
UNDISTURBED ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO WORK WITH FOR ANY
POTENTIAL QLCSS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30% RANGE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL END
UP IN THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS PROMPTED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS
AND FUELS BUT LIGHTER WINDS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA TONIGHT. GUIDANCE BRINGS THE
THETA-E GRADIENT INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONCEPTUALLY,
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED T-STORMS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE EXACT EVOLUTION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE TRYING TO SPLIT THE TWIN CITIES AREA
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF US SUNDAY MORNING. IF AN
ORGANIZED MCV MOVES OUT OF NEBRASKA - THIS COULD INFLUENCE THE
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULDN'T BE
SEVERE, BUT COULD LEAD TO A WET START TO THE DAY.
ON SUNDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECAY AND EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND INSTABILITY TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION.
OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN ACTIVE STRETCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ASSUMING WE'RE ABLE TO DRY OUT AND RECOVER,
STEEP LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE SHEAR, AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SW AND SC MN
SHOW A LEGITIMATE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE FORCING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. I
FELT BETTER ABOUT THE SET UP TWO DAYS AGO THAN I DO NOW. SLOWER
TIMING & A WEAKER SHORTWAVE LIKELY LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS SE SD/E NE/NW IA/FAR SW MN.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. THESE STORMS WILL CONGEAL SUNDAY
EVENING AS THEY TREK EAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN/EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD WILL BECOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ONCE STORM MODE TURNS LINEAR SUNDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD SUPPORT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
BRIEF QLCS TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY WANE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LINE OF STORMS TRACKS
EAST INTO WISCONSIN.
FOR MONDAY, THE SEVERE RISK REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON SUNDAY'S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WHERE THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN ON
MONDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE AN MCS MOVES THROUGH AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARIES
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT
ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP REMAINS SIMILAR WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND EAU
CLAIRE, WI. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
ALLOW AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST IN IOWA/WI/IL BUT THE UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT WE'RE LEFT
WITH MONDAY AM IS LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR S/E
AREAS. THE DAY 3 SWO FROM SPC DID INCLUDE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE RISK AREAS. THERE IS STILL A CONCERN ACROSS SC &
FAR EAST MN AND WESTERN WI FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO HIT 60.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE
THROUGH, BUT THE SIGNAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL WEATHER
APPEARS LIMITED IN THE LONG TERM FOR NOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
TOUGH FORECAST THIS PERIOD TYING TO PIN DOWN PRECIP POTENTIAL.
THE PROBLEM IS WE ARE SEEING LOTS OF CONVECTION WAY DOWN ON THE
MO/IA BORDER. ANY MCV FROM THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE MPX AREA. MEANWHILE, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
WAY BACK IN MT, WHICH KEEPS THE BEST FORCING TONIGHT WELL TO
THE WEST IN NODAK. THAT LEAVES THE MPX AREA STUCK IN THE MIDDLE
WITH RATHER MUTED SOURCES FOR LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT. WE HUNG OUR HAT ON THE SPOTTY SHOWERS THE HRRR
SHOWS DEVELOPING IN ROUGHLY THE 7Z TO 14Z PERIOD AS THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STARTS MOVING IN FOR HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST SHOWER
POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING, WHICH RESULTED IN MOVING PROB30S FOR
SHRA UP A FEW HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON. TS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 20Z
IN EASTERN SD, BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO THE EAST MAY RESULT
IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MN IN THE AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF ANY
POTENTIAL TS COMING OUT OF SD. FOR CIGS, FOLLOWED THE TREND OF
THE LAV AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS, BUT WAS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
AS THEM WITH BRINGING IN IFR CIGS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL WAIT TO SEE JUST HOW A STABLE STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPS
BEFORE GOING IFR.
KMSP...MOVED THE MORNING SHOWER POTENTIAL UP TO BEFORE 12Z,
ASSOCIATED WITH WHEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVES. A LULL IN
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, WITH SHOWER
POTENTIAL INCREASING AT 22Z, WITH 1Z TO 4Z LOOKING TO FEATURE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE THROUGH THE METRO.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...-SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY, IFR/MVFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
TUE...MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NNW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-TODD.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG
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