339
FXUS63 KMPX 181206
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM FAR-SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.
-SEASONABLY COOL & DRY MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A FEW REMNANTS SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT ALL OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER HAS MOVED
WELL OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, & COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH OUT OF THE 50S
& LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FARTHER EAST,
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL STILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT & TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MUGGIER DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
WE'LL STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARDS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD NORTH OF THE
PRIME ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS KS/NE/IA, BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH JUST HOW FAR NORTH A CORRIDOR OF WEAKER SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY CAN MAKE IT INTO FAR-SOUTHERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARDS ACROSS MN & WI DURING THE EARLY
EVENING, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL & BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
COMING BETWEEN8 PM TO MIDNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THESE AREAS,
BUT OTHERWISE WE'RE JUST EXPECTING YOUR TYPICAL SPRING SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT TIME. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS, & HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ARE
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, THE
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER & MORE SPORADIC SO ONLY EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.5". THE SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON & OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT, ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND SUNRISE.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES AFTER THE RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO WARM OUT OF THE 50S TUESDAY. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
& COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY CREATE A PRIME
ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THESE WILL BE LIGHT. MAY
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE
WEDNESDAY MORNING IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT &
THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED. SEASONABLY COOL
& DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING LIKELY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, BUT IT WON'T BE A
WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
VALUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, & COULD WARM INTO THE 80S SUNDAY &
MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
PREDOMINATELY MVFR/IFR THIS PERIOD WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN RNH AND
EAU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN EITHER LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MSP IS CREATING
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS ALL SITES CURRENTLY HOWEVER WINDS WARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME NW'LY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. DID UPDATE PREVIOUSLY STATED PROB30S TO TEMPO GROUPS
WHERE RAIN AND THUNDER APPEARED MOST LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD WRAP UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR HEIGHTS AND LINGER THERE FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. CONVERTED AND TIGHTENED UP THE PREVIOUS PROB30 MENTIONS
TO A TEMPO FOR TSRA BETWEEN 2 AND 5Z THIS EVENING. VARIABLE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NW BETWEEN 5-10KTS THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS EVENTUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR 20KTS AFTER 10Z
TOMORROW MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND LGT AND VRB.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 10G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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