213
FXUS63 KMPX 181755
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM FAR-SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- SEASONABLY COOL & DRY MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A FEW REMNANTS SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT ALL OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER HAS MOVED
WELL OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, & COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH OUT OF THE 50S
& LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FARTHER EAST,
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL STILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT & TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MUGGIER DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
WE'LL STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARDS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD NORTH OF THE PRIME
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS KS/NE/IA, BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH JUST HOW FAR NORTH A CORRIDOR OF WEAKER SURFACE- BASED
INSTABILITY CAN MAKE IT INTO FAR-SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
SPREAD NORTHWARDS ACROSS MN & WI DURING THE EARLY EVENING, WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL & BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER COMING BETWEEN8
PM TO MIDNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THESE AREAS, BUT OTHERWISE
WE'RE JUST EXPECTING YOUR TYPICAL SPRING SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT TIME. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONCENTRATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS, & HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ARE EXPECTED FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, THE SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHTER & MORE SPORADIC SO ONLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.5". THE SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON & OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AROUND SUNRISE.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES AFTER THE RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO WARM OUT OF THE 50S TUESDAY. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
& COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY CREATE A PRIME
ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THESE WILL BE LIGHT. MAY
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE WEDNESDAY
MORNING IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT & THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED. SEASONABLY COOL &
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, BUT IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT OF A
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, & COULD WARM INTO THE 80S SUNDAY & MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
LOW STRATUS, MVFR-TO-IFR, EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS
DURATION AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED NE-TO-SW
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE WFO MPX
TAF SITES. A ROUND OF RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSRA (MAINLY
SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI) IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY LASTING AS
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS IFR, PARTICULARLY IF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CROSS OVER ANY GIVEN SITE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
OVERNIGHT TO JUST BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A
SLOW RISE IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NE THROUGHOUT, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS DURING THE DAY TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, INCREASING TO NEAR 15G25KTS LATE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
KMSP...CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN THE 010-015 RANGE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A SMALL SHOT OF SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO
00Z THIS EVENING, AFTER 00Z, CHANCES RAMP OF SIGNIFICANTLY OF A
SWATH OF RAIN/TSRA SHIFTING NE FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE, WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY INTO
IFR RANGE SHOULD HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MOVE ACROSS MSP. AS THE
PRECIP WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE BUT NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15G25KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5 KTS, SHIFTING TO SE.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC
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