647
FXUS63 KMPX 190721
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
221 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA
- SEASONABLY COOL & DRY WEATHER PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARDS
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA &WESTERN WISCONSIN, WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL DAY
MORE TYPICAL OF MARCH OR OCTOBER IS IN STORE AS WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER & PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION LIMITS TEMPERATURES TO
THE UPPER 40S & LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-
AFTERNOON BUT ANY RAIN FROM THESE WILL BE BRIEF & NEGLIGIBLE.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET & WINDS GO CALM
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, CREATING IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. WE LIKELY WON'T
MAXIMIZE OUR COOLING POTENTIAL OWING TO THE WET GROUND & MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE RECENT RAINS, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA 7 LOW 40S
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL & LOW-LYING AREAS. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 30S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, &
WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS TODAY TO SEE IF ANY AREAS
ARE AT RISK FOR A FREEZE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S. WE'LL STAY SEASONABLY
COOL & DRY INTO FRIDAY, BUT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS DETERMINISTIC & ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ALL DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. AI CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS SHOW VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, SO WE'RE JUST
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF TYPICAL SPRING SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS. SOLUTIONS VARY SOMEWHAT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, BUT AT LEAST
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY OVER THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND - MOST LIKELY MONDAY. SO WE'LL SEE
SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT NO A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS. TEMPERATURES LIKELY STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY, BUT COULD WARM INTO THE 80S FOR
SUNDAY & MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXN, RWF, STC SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WHILE RNH AND EAU SHOULD BE CLEAR BY 10-12Z. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE TODAY. ALL SITES WILL START OUT IN EITHER IFR/LIFR
CATEGORIES PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND THEN INCREASING TO MVFR BY 13-15Z
TIMEFRAME. AS OF NOW, CIGS LOOK TO NOT RETURN TO LOW VFR UNTIL 23-
00Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TODAY OUT OF THE
NW AT OR ABOUT 15KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS BEFORE DECREASING
THIS EVENING.
KMSP...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CLEAR MSP BY 09Z. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD RETURN BACK
INTO LOW MVFR BY ABOUT 15Z. WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE NW AT OR
ABOUT 15KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS RETURNING AROUND 02Z
TIMEFRAME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5 KTS, SHIFTING TO SE.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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