483
FXUS63 KMPX 191158
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA
- SEASONABLY COOL & DRY WEATHER PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARDS
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA &WESTERN WISCONSIN, WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL DAY
MORE TYPICAL OF MARCH OR OCTOBER IS IN STORE AS WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER & PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION LIMITS TEMPERATURES TO
THE UPPER 40S & LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-
AFTERNOON BUT ANY RAIN FROM THESE WILL BE BRIEF & NEGLIGIBLE.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET & WINDS GO CALM
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, CREATING IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. WE LIKELY WON'T
MAXIMIZE OUR COOLING POTENTIAL OWING TO THE WET GROUND & MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE RECENT RAINS, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA 7 LOW 40S
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL & LOW-LYING AREAS. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 30S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, &
WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS TODAY TO SEE IF ANY AREAS
ARE AT RISK FOR A FREEZE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S. WE'LL STAY SEASONABLY
COOL & DRY INTO FRIDAY, BUT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS DETERMINISTIC & ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ALL DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. AI CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS SHOW VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, SO WE'RE JUST
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF TYPICAL SPRING SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS. SOLUTIONS VARY SOMEWHAT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, BUT AT LEAST
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY OVER THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND - MOST LIKELY MONDAY. SO WE'LL SEE
SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT NO A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS. TEMPERATURES LIKELY STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY, BUT COULD WARM INTO THE 80S FOR
SUNDAY & MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
ALL SHOWERS THAT HAD IMPACTED OUR EASTERN SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS LINGERING
IFR/MVFR STRATUS THAT WONT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY NW'LY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS NEAR 15KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS. CANT RULE OUT THE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON. CHOSE NOT TO INCLUDE
PRECIP AT ANY ONE LOCATION GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF MODELED
REFLECTIVITY.
KMSP...LOW MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THIS MORNING
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22-00Z TIMEFRAME WHEN CIGS SCATTER OUT
TO LOW VFR. BREEZY NW'LY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 15KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECTED NOT TO CAUSE IMPACTS OR DISRUPTIONS TO FLIGHT
OPERATIONS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED PM...VFR. WIND SE 5 KTS
THU...VFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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