920
FXUS63 KMPX 191725
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- SEASONABLY COOL & DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT SPOTTY SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE THANKS
TO THE LINGERING STRATUS DECK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. IT
WILL FEEL MUCH CLOSER TO LATE MARCH THAN LATE MAY. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW OUR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A FROST ADVISORY GOES IN EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. WHAT ABOUT A
FREEZE WARNING IF MY LOW TEMPERATURE IS 30? SUB- FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN,
BUT THE RESIDENCE TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULDN'T BE LONG ENOUGH
TO EXPERIENCE A PROPER FREEZE. THIS IS WHY WE WENT WITH A FROST
ADVISORY VERSUS A FREEZE WARNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS E/S MN AND W WI, HELPING PREVENT ANY
MEANINGFUL FROST FORMATION. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SET UP IN THE
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ALONG THE US- CAN BORDER. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE GENERAL PATTERN DOESN'T
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MEANINGFUL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE
REMAINDER OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE PLEASANT.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REMAIN VARIED WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD
IMPLY A WASHOUT OR EVEN A DISRUPTION TO OUTDOOR PLANS. WARMER,
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
MOST SITES ARE SITTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1500-2500FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL SEE
CIGS CONTINUE TO RISE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY, REACHING
VFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME. AT
THE SAME TIME, WE EXPECT TO SEE THE CLOUD DECK BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT AS A SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY, BUT
VISIBILITY IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH SUNSET, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS, BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG TOMORROW (MOSTLY
AROUND 5 KTS), AND WILL BACK OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW EVENING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
SAT...CHANCE MVFR/-RA EARLY. WIND SW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-
BROWN-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-
LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-
POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-
SWIFT-TODD-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BED
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