157
FXUS63 KMPX 192303
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
603 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- SEASONABLY COOL & DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT SPOTTY SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE THANKS
TO THE LINGERING STRATUS DECK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. IT
WILL FEEL MUCH CLOSER TO LATE MARCH THAN LATE MAY. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW OUR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A FROST ADVISORY GOES IN EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. WHAT ABOUT A
FREEZE WARNING IF MY LOW TEMPERATURE IS 30? SUB- FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN,
BUT THE RESIDENCE TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULDN'T BE LONG ENOUGH
TO EXPERIENCE A PROPER FREEZE. THIS IS WHY WE WENT WITH A FROST
ADVISORY VERSUS A FREEZE WARNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS E/S MN AND W WI, HELPING PREVENT ANY
MEANINGFUL FROST FORMATION. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SET UP IN THE
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ALONG THE US- CAN BORDER. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE GENERAL PATTERN DOESN'T
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MEANINGFUL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE
REMAINDER OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE PLEASANT.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REMAIN VARIED WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD
IMPLY A WASHOUT OR EVEN A DISRUPTION TO OUTDOOR PLANS. WARMER,
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WINDS WILL CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE NORTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE WINDS PICK BACK UP LATE
TOMORROW AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE S TO
SE.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
SAT...CHANCE MVFR/-RA EARLY. WIND SW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-
BROWN-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-
LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-
POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-
SWIFT-TODD-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BARRON-POLK-
RUSK.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...NDC
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