293
FXUS63 KMPX 201150
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY COOL & DRY TODAY INTO FRIDAY
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS COMES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
- WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
CLEAR SKIES & CALM WINDS ARE RESULTING IN A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED UNTIL SUNRISE.
RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG &
MIST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AGAIN EXPECTED
TO CLEAR UP AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE NO WEATHER CONCERNS OF
NOTE UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON & EVENING TO LIKELY GENERATE SOME THUNDER, ALONG WITH
MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION OFF TO THE GREAT LAKES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5-1" ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA,
DECREASING TO 0.1-0.25" ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND GETS OFF TO A COOL & CLOUDY START WITH
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY & TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WARMER
& SUNNIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY & MID 80S LIKELY ON
MONDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT THESE CHANCES LOOK TO MAINLY
LIMITED TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
MORE SUMMER-Y CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S,
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS OR WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF. CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO WHICH SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT RWF AND AXN. FEW TO SCT HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE, SHOULD BE NICE
DAY TO TAKE TO THE SKIES.
KMSP...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT OR ABOUT 5KTS HOWEVER FROM A
DIRECTIONAL VIEWPOINT, A NW'LY WIND COMPONENT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING PRIOR TO WIND SHIFTING EASTERLY THIS AROUND 00Z. THEN,
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
SAT...MVFR/-RA EARLY. WIND E 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI
PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-
TODD-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-POLK-
RUSK.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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