120
FXUS63 KMPX 210554
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1254 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MUCH
WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. FAIR WEATHER CU
ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BUT WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. OUR RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH. WITH VIRTUALLY NO
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD ARE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA,
WITH QPF TOTALS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20". AMOUNTS DROP OFF QUICKLY TO
THE EAST WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE. THIS MEANS THAT THE
START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL LIKELY NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASHOUT, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONTINUED TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S WILL NOT FEEL VERY SUMMER-LIKE.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEK TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCREASE WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE ARE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, BUT ANY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. SE'LY
WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME MORE SUSTAINED MID TO LATE MORNING
AROUND 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15-20KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER SUNRISE.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. PM MVFR/-SHRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
SAT...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WIND S 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page