417
FXUS63 KMPX 211735
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS COMES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR-NORMAL
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER & A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPP VALLEY.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON & EVENING TO LIKELY GENERATE SOME THUNDER ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA, ALONG WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS
SYSTEM. LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION OFF TO THE GREAT LAKES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5-1"
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, DECREASING TO 0.1-0.25" ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN.
GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY,
MEANING WE'LL HAVE ABETTER SHOT AT CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON & TEMEPRATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S & EVEN LOW
70S EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS PRONOUNCED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WARM INTO THE 70S SUNDAY & INTO THE 80S ON
MONDAY, WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY & ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
(MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS). THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AFTER SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WE'LL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20+ KTS. BKN TO SCT MID-LEVEL
SKY COVER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH AN INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END. BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, BECOMING MORE BROKEN
AS THEY MOVE EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN DECENT, INCREASING SLIGHTLY
WITH THE SHOWERS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...MVFR/-SHRA LATE. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
SAT...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WIND S 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...PV
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