417
FXUS63 KMPX 212033
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- THE SECOND HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS
STILL ON TRACK TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
IT'S ANOTHER COOL MID MAY DAY WITH PATCHY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR, BUT WITH A DRY
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE, PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. A QUICK
LOOK AT SURFACE OBS SHOWS YOU WHERE THE BIGGER GAPS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE PERSISTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70. CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAVE SEEN THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER, WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. ALOFT,
A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A
SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NEBRASKA/WYOMING. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLIDE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN, SO RAIN
CHANCES DON'T REALLY INCREASE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN
MINNESOTA IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE THE BIG WINNER WHEN IT COMES TO
QPF AMOUNTS, WHICH HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO. TOTALS
ARE NOW RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 0.5 TO 0.75" GENERALLY WEST OF ST.
CLOUD AND MANKATO, WITH AROUND A TENTH OR TWO TO THE EAST. WESTERN
WISCONSIN WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WITH
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER TOMORROW NIGHT, WE SHOULD
DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR, BUT SATURDAY SHOULD AT LEAST BE A
LITTLE WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE A BIT
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S. RIDGING STILL LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONG SIGNALS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20+ KTS. BKN TO SCT MID-LEVEL
SKY COVER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH AN INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END. BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, BECOMING MORE BROKEN
AS THEY MOVE EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN DECENT, INCREASING SLIGHTLY
WITH THE SHOWERS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...MVFR/-SHRA LATE. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
SAT...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WIND S 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...PV
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