633
FXUS63 KMPX 212340
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- THE SECOND HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS
STILL ON TRACK TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
IT'S ANOTHER COOL MID MAY DAY WITH PATCHY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR, BUT WITH A DRY
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE, PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. A QUICK
LOOK AT SURFACE OBS SHOWS YOU WHERE THE BIGGER GAPS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE PERSISTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70. CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAVE SEEN THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER, WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. ALOFT,
A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A
SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NEBRASKA/WYOMING. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLIDE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN, SO RAIN
CHANCES DON'T REALLY INCREASE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN
MINNESOTA IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE THE BIG WINNER WHEN IT COMES TO
QPF AMOUNTS, WHICH HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO. TOTALS
ARE NOW RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 0.5 TO 0.75" GENERALLY WEST OF ST.
CLOUD AND MANKATO, WITH AROUND A TENTH OR TWO TO THE EAST. WESTERN
WISCONSIN WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WITH
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER TOMORROW NIGHT, WE SHOULD
DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR, BUT SATURDAY SHOULD AT LEAST BE A
LITTLE WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE A BIT
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S. RIDGING STILL LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONG SIGNALS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR TO START THE PERIOD WITH DROP INTO MVFR ON FRIDAY AS RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME LOCATIONS, LIKE AXN
COULD DROP FURTHER INTO IFR LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME
EARLY DAY RAIN SHOWERS, BETTER CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE EVENING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH A SHIFT COMING AFTER THE
END OF THESE TAFS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS. THEY WILL PICK BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE RAIN CHANCES MOVE
IN WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT WERE NOT LIKELY ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF,
EVEN AS A PROB30. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A RAIN SHOWER EVENT, WITH
JUST A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
KMSP...OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE OVER
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING, WE CURRENTLY EXPECT THEM TO DECAY SUCH
THAT IT WON'T IMPACT MSP. HOWEVER IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER BETTER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED SOME SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN
FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES IN THE
EVENING AND IT WITH THIS ARRIVAL WE WILL SEE CEILINGS FALL INTO
MVFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WIND S 5-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...NDC
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