134
FXUS63 KMPX 220543
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1243 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- THE SECOND HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS
STILL ON TRACK TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
IT'S ANOTHER COOL MID MAY DAY WITH PATCHY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR, BUT WITH A DRY
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE, PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. A QUICK
LOOK AT SURFACE OBS SHOWS YOU WHERE THE BIGGER GAPS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE PERSISTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70. CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAVE SEEN THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER, WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. ALOFT,
A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A
SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NEBRASKA/WYOMING. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLIDE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN, SO RAIN
CHANCES DON'T REALLY INCREASE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN
MINNESOTA IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE THE BIG WINNER WHEN IT COMES TO
QPF AMOUNTS, WHICH HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO. TOTALS
ARE NOW RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 0.5 TO 0.75" GENERALLY WEST OF ST.
CLOUD AND MANKATO, WITH AROUND A TENTH OR TWO TO THE EAST. WESTERN
WISCONSIN WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WITH
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER TOMORROW NIGHT, WE SHOULD
DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR, BUT SATURDAY SHOULD AT LEAST BE A
LITTLE WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE A BIT
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S. RIDGING STILL LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONG SIGNALS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP OR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN MN FROM NORTHWEST IA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE
MORNING. RWF AND AXN CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE TO SEE THE MOST RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT, WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF -RA EXPECTED TODAY. IN
ADDITION, A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE CHANCE FOR TS HIGH ENOUGH
AT RWF TO INTRODUCE A PROB30 FOR TS THERE. ONE CHANGE WITH THIS
TAF WAS TO TAP THE BRAKES A BIT ON DROPPING CIGS INTO MVFR OR
LOWER LEVELS AS RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BEING A
BIT HARDER TO MOVE OUT TODAY.
KMSP...WE MAY SEE A FEW DROPS OF RAIN FROM 13Z TO 18Z, BUT IT'S
2Z WHEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHOWS UP TO DRIVE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FIELD OVERNIGHT. NO TS IS ANTICIPATED AS FAR NORTHEAST OF
MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND SW TO W 5-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...MPG
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