462
FXUS63 KMPX 220825
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY IN WESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH SOME
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- THE SECOND HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS
STILL ON TRACK TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO EASTERN
WYOMING. TODAY, THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE,
NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST NODAK. THIS WILL PULL A SURFACE LOW UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE COMING UP
ACROSS WESTERN MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN FOR WESTERN MN TODAY. BESIDES THE RAIN, A NARROW RIBBON
OF MUCAPE WILL COME IN WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, SO THERE
WILL BE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THIS SHIELD OF RAIN, WHICH WILL
HELP BOOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY IN WESTERN MN. PROBABILITY
MATCHED QPF FROM THE HREF SHOWS 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN BEING POSSIBLE
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL MN TODAY/TONIGHT. A WELCOME SITE
FOR WHAT HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR YEAR-TO-DATE
PRECIPITATION. AS WE GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THIS COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE MPX AREA. HOWEVER, AS IT DOES
SO, THE UPPER WAVE FORCING IT WILL BE MOVING DEEPER AND DEEPER INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WITH THIS FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM ITS UPPER FORCING,
WE WILL SEE DECREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN AND AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE EAST
OF THE US-71 CORRIDOR. THIS IS HOW WE CAN GO FROM FORECASTING AROUND
AN INCH OF RAIN IN WESTERN MN, THAT FALLS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE EAU CLAIRE AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE DID USE THE
HRRR/RAP TO KNOCK BACK HIGHS IN WESTERN MN TODAY WHERE CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN WESTERN
WI, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO PUSH 70, SO WE'LL
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD WEST TO EAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL COME DOWN TO THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER WE SEE. THE NBM HIGHS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC
GIVEN THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WE'LL HAVE IN PLACE, SO WE DID TAKE A
LITTLE OFF THE NBM HIGHS FOR SATURDAY.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE AND FORCING LOOK TO BE LACKING, BUT WITHIN
THE ENSEMBLES, DETERMINISTIC, AND AI MODELS, YOU SEE THE IDEA OF
THERE BEING SOME REMNANT SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES BEING LEFT
OVER FROM THE FRONT BRINGING US THE RAIN TODAY THAT COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, THOUGH ON THE
WHOLE, IT SHOULD BE DRY, WITH HIGHS WARMING TOWARD 80 DEGREES.
NEXT WEEK, THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN IS INTERESTING, BUT
WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT IS PRETTY QUIET FOR US.
THAT WEATHER PATTERN WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL CANADA FROM A HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS.
THIS BLOCKING RIDGE WILL KEEP ANY SYSTEMS FROM GETTING INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF A HUDSON
HIGH. OUR WARMEST WEATHER WILL COME MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN OUR
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH. WE'LL SEE HIGHS BOTH DAYS JUMP INTO
THE UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AS WELL IN MN.
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY, THE HUDSON HIGH WILL START DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL TURN OUR WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OVER TO
THE EAST. THESE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TAKE A NIBBLE OUT OF
OUR TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S. GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGING
AND HUDSON HIGH COMBINATION, RAINFALL WILL BE HARD TO COME BY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE ONLY HOPE FOR SOME RAIN COMING IN THE FORM OF ANY
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS WE CAN SCARE UP. YOU CAN'T RULE THAT OUT,
BUT IN GENERAL, AFTER TODAY, DON'T EXPECT MUCH RAIN IN YOUR GARDEN
FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN MN FROM NORTHWEST IA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE
MORNING. RWF AND AXN CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE TO SEE THE MOST RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT, WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF -RA EXPECTED TODAY. IN
ADDITION, A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE CHANCE FOR TS HIGH ENOUGH
AT RWF TO INTRODUCE A PROB30 FOR TS THERE. ONE CHANGE WITH THIS
TAF WAS TO TAP THE BRAKES A BIT ON DROPPING CIGS INTO MVFR OR
LOWER LEVELS AS RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BEING A
BIT HARDER TO MOVE OUT TODAY.
KMSP...WE MAY SEE A FEW DROPS OF RAIN FROM 13Z TO 18Z, BUT IT'S
2Z WHEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHOWS UP TO DRIVE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FIELD OVERNIGHT. NO TS IS ANTICIPATED AS FAR NORTHEAST OF
MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND SW TO W 5-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
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