729
FXUS63 KMPX 221747
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1247 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MINNESOTA,
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
THE PRECIPITATION REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- TEMPERATURES TREND UP SUNDAY AND REMAIN HOT FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES NEXT
WEEK, BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A BAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MN AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWEST. LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY
WHICH WILL KEEP THE BAND CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN INTO THE
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS,
WITH AMOUNTS GREATLY TAPERING OFF TO THE EAST. LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INCH NORTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST BACK INTO EASTERN
MN, BUT WILL ALSO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON. BY THE TIME THE BAND REACHES WI LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY, MOST OF IT SHOULD HAVE DEGRADED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT, IF ANY. THE REST OF
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING, LIFTING AND
SCATTERING IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WI,
WHILE LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MN MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
WARM AIR WILL LIFT NORTH BEHIND THE LOW SUNDAY WITHIN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN
WARMER TO START THE WEEK AS 925 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO +24 OR
+25C MONDAY AND +26C TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 90S TUESDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE WAA REGIME LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AMID STEEP MID
LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM WILL ALLOW A POOL OF INSTABILITY TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION, A SMALL LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST IA COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY TUESDAY AND
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG I-94 WEDNESDAY, THEN
WASH OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE POOL OF
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH REMAINING VERY WARM RELATIVE TO NORMAL,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAF WENT A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN INTRODUCING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING IN, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA
BEING WESTERNMOST SITES AT RWF/AXN/STC. ELSEWHERE, -TSRA SHOULD BE
LIMITED SUCH THAT EVEN A PROB30 WOULD BE TOO PREVALENT, WITH -SHRA
ARRIVING LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS AND INSTABILITY
DECREASING. GENERALLY EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS/VSBY, HOWEVER BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR ALL MN SITES,
WITH A LOWER CHANCE FOR RNH/EAU. THE OTHER PRIMARY FACTOR WITHIN THE
TAF WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AT 25-30KTS FROM 130-160 WHILE -SHRA IS
ONGOING, WITH WINDS DECREASING BELOW 10KTS AS THEY SHIFT TOWARDS 220-
250 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND AS -SHRA CHANCES END. MOST SITES
WILL REMAIN MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT, EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR TOWARDS THE VERY END.
KMSP...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS -SHRA BECOMES MORE LIKELY AFTER
00Z, HOWEVER SOME INTERMITTENT P6SM -SHRA IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM 18-
20Z. A LULL IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z AS MOST OF THE -SHRA IS WEST OF
MSP, RETURNING BY 00Z AND LASTING THROUGH 08-10Z AT WHICH POINT
SHOWERS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY PRODUCING THE SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 10Z, WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND DECREASING
AFTERWARDS, EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR WITH WINDS BELOW 10KTS BY
15Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDH
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