161
FXUS63 KMPX 222328
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MINNESOTA,
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
THE PRECIPITATION REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- TEMPERATURES TREND UP SUNDAY AND REMAIN HOT FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES NEXT
WEEK, BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A BAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MN AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWEST. LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY
WHICH WILL KEEP THE BAND CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN INTO THE
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS,
WITH AMOUNTS GREATLY TAPERING OFF TO THE EAST. LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INCH NORTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST BACK INTO EASTERN
MN, BUT WILL ALSO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON. BY THE TIME THE BAND REACHES WI LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY, MOST OF IT SHOULD HAVE DEGRADED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT, IF ANY. THE REST OF
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING, LIFTING AND
SCATTERING IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WI,
WHILE LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MN MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
WARM AIR WILL LIFT NORTH BEHIND THE LOW SUNDAY WITHIN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN
WARMER TO START THE WEEK AS 925 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO +24 OR
+25C MONDAY AND +26C TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 90S TUESDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE WAA REGIME LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AMID STEEP MID
LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM WILL ALLOW A POOL OF INSTABILITY TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION, A SMALL LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST IA COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY TUESDAY AND
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG I-94 WEDNESDAY, THEN
WASH OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE POOL OF
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH REMAINING VERY WARM RELATIVE TO NORMAL,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS PUSHING NORTH TO START THE PERIOD, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM IOWA LATER THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LIGHTNING, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. MANY SITES WILL DROP INTO MVFR
CIGS, WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A GROWING SIGNAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING NEAR AXN OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN WI EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH THEY SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ISOLATED. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOMORROW
MORNING, REACHING LOW-END VFR BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MANY SITES.
WINDS HAVE INCREASE OUT OF THE E/SE THIS EVENING, WITH SOME
SITES GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KTS. WE'LL SEE WINDS DAMPEN OVERNIGHT,
AND EVENTUALLY TURN OUT OF THE SW/W TOMORROW.
KMSP...VERY LIGHT RAIN TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE A FEW HOURS OF
DRY WEATHER. NO VISIBILITY IMPACTS EXPECTED UNTIL A ROUND OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS
WILL ONLY LAST 3-5 HOURS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE WE
DON'T SEE MVFR VIS IF THE RAIN COMES IN LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED,
THOUGH CIGS WILL BE HOVERING VERY CLOSE TO THE 3000FT LINE AT
THE SAME TIME. THE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LATER THAN 16Z
TOMORROW, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BED
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