755
FXUS63 KMPX 230553
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1253 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MINNESOTA,
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
THE PRECIPITATION REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- TEMPERATURES TREND UP SUNDAY AND REMAIN HOT FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES NEXT
WEEK, BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A BAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MN AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWEST. LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY
WHICH WILL KEEP THE BAND CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN INTO THE
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS,
WITH AMOUNTS GREATLY TAPERING OFF TO THE EAST. LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INCH NORTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST BACK INTO EASTERN
MN, BUT WILL ALSO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON. BY THE TIME THE BAND REACHES WI LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY, MOST OF IT SHOULD HAVE DEGRADED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT, IF ANY. THE REST OF
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING, LIFTING AND
SCATTERING IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WI,
WHILE LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MN MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
WARM AIR WILL LIFT NORTH BEHIND THE LOW SUNDAY WITHIN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN
WARMER TO START THE WEEK AS 925 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO +24 OR
+25C MONDAY AND +26C TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 90S TUESDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE WAA REGIME LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AMID STEEP MID
LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM WILL ALLOW A POOL OF INSTABILITY TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION, A SMALL LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST IA COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY TUESDAY AND
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG I-94 WEDNESDAY, THEN
WASH OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE POOL OF
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH REMAINING VERY WARM RELATIVE TO NORMAL,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE UPPER FORCING FOR THIS FRONT WILL BE GETTING
FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY, SO OUTSIDE OF SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN, SO THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A CLOUD MAKER FOR US. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE AT AXN, WHICH WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, IT SHOULD
STILL BE CLOUDY IN WI WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CENTRAL MN
WITH WRAP AROUND CLOUDS, BUT FOR PLACES LIKE MSP/MKT/RWF, SKIES
SHOULD SCATTER OUT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS PERIOD, BUT WILL
MOVE AROUND QUITE A BIT AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. WE'LL SEE WINDS
TEND TOWARD THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WE WILL START TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
KMSP...GIVEN RADAR/OBSERVATION TRENDS, PULLED ANY PRECIP MENTION
THE REST OF TONIGHT TO JUST A VCSH. WE MAY START THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS BELOW 018, BUT WE WILL BE BACK ABOVE THAT
LEVEL BY 17Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG
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