677
FXUS63 KMPX 230800
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY EAST OF I-35.
- TURNING WARMER SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND EVEN 90S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- LOW CHANCES FOR DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES NEXT
WEEK, BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
NODAK, WITH ITS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE MPX AREA TODAY.
AHEAD OF IT, A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES,
THOUGH AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW TRAVEL DEEPER INTO CENTRAL
CANADA, THIS FRONT WILL BE LOSING ITS FORCING. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED NUISANCE SHOWERS TODAY FOR WHOMEVER IS EAST OF THE FRONT
(SO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR). THE OTHER POTENTIAL
AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
CENTRAL MN AS DIURNAL SHOWERS COULD POP WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. AFTER TODAY, IT'S SLIM PICKINGS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS TO FIND ANY RAIN CHANCES OUT THERE.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA. THE MPX AREA WILL END UP JUST SOUTH OF THE CLOSED H5 HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WHICH PUTS US IN AN AREA OF
WEAK FLOW AND LITTLE FORCING. THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE WE'RE SEEING
ANYTHING CLOSE TO A ROBUST SIGNAL FOR RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HERE, A WEAK LLJ IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN INTO WESTERN WI. PERSISTENT WAA WITHIN THIS LLJ WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR UP TOWARD THE I-94 CORRIDOR IN
WESTERN WI. AFTER THAT, A HUDSON HIGH SETTLING IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BLOCK ANY MOISTURE FROM GETTING AS FAR EAST AS MN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL UPTICK IN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WE'LL GET INTO THE 80S
SUNDAY, JUMP UP TO THE MID/UPPER 80S MEMORIAL DAY, THEN PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S TUESDAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
NBM IS RUNNING A LITTLE HOT FOR THOSE HIGHS ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY,
AS THE HUDSON HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WE'LL SEE OUR
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME EASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE TO SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT THOSE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO FALLING
WILL BE THE DEWPOINTS, WITH THIS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. SO ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN WOULD BE NICE, IT'S HARD TO
COMPLAIN ABOUT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE UPPER FORCING FOR THIS FRONT WILL BE GETTING
FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY, SO OUTSIDE OF SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN, SO THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A CLOUD MAKER FOR US. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE AT AXN, WHICH WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, IT SHOULD
STILL BE CLOUDY IN WI WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND CENTRAL MN
WITH WRAP AROUND CLOUDS, BUT FOR PLACES LIKE MSP/MKT/RWF, SKIES
SHOULD SCATTER OUT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS PERIOD, BUT WILL
MOVE AROUND QUITE A BIT AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. WE'LL SEE WINDS
TEND TOWARD THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WE WILL START TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
KMSP...GIVEN RADAR/OBSERVATION TRENDS, PULLED ANY PRECIP MENTION
THE REST OF TONIGHT TO JUST A VCSH. WE MAY START THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS BELOW 018, BUT WE WILL BE BACK ABOVE THAT
LEVEL BY 17Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
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