642
FXUS63 KMPX 072355
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR MUCH OF MINNESOTA UNTIL THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY.
- TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS SETTLES IN MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CORE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED ACROSS E'RN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE,
A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM MADISON OVER TO ROCHESTER HAS
PRODUCED DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH AIR TEMPERATURES UPPER 80S.
WARM-ADVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MN AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. TODAY'S ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE FOR SUB-SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER, LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS DOES FEATURE A MUCAPE GRADIENT OVER 2500 J/KG
WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS RESIDES. SO THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GET STORMS GOING ALONG THIS FRONT BUT LUCKILY WIND-SHEAR
LACKS TO MAINTAIN ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS FOR PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS WILL BE PULSE-LIKE AND HAVE FREQUENT
PERIODS OF INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUMP IN AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.75" WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THIS PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECT
TO LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WESTERN MN CLEARING OUT BY
EARLY MORNING, EASTERN MN BY MID-MORNING, AND THEN WESTERN WI
BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL CONTINUES TO RANGE
MAINLY BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75" ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY FOR THOSE WHO SEE TRAINING HEAVY RAIN.
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WHICH BORDERLINES ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE NBM HAS BEEN
AGGRESSIVELY WARM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE HAVE BLENDED
IN HIRES GUIDANCE TO TREND BACK HEAT INDICES THAT WERE
PREVIOUSLY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER
CHANCE OF ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROCEEDS AN UPPER-
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST QPF SHIFTS ITS MAXIMA THIS TIME MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN
MN INTO NORTH DAKOTA HOWEVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MN COULD SEE ANOTHER COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
NOW FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF CHATTER ABOUT THE
INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD AND
DOES TAKE A BROAD NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHAPE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS TO OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS WE DO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. ONE, IS IF THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. TWO, IS
NOTING THAT THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CAN HAVE ALL SHIFTED THE TRIPLE
POINT FARTHER EAST THUS PRODUCING THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
MAINLY IN WISCONSIN. GIVEN THAT, STILL SOMETHING WORTH
MONITORING EARLY THIS WEEK.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES MINOR CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO RETREAT AS DEW POINTS DECREASE BACK INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN, MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM STC TO MSP. COVERAGE OF TS IS DIMINISHING AS
OUTFLOWS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
EMBEDDED TS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT AFTER MID TO
LATE EVENING PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE
TAFS AFTER 03-04Z. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR OR IFR,
WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO RISE MONDAY MORNING.
KMSP...CHC FOR TS IS VERY LOW TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND MAY BECOME IFR AFTER 10Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR, BCMG MVFR W/TSRA. WIND S 15-20G30 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page