513
FXUS63 KMPX 081137
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
637 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS SETTLES IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ARE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC HIGHLIGHTS TWO AREAS OF ACTIVITY. THE
FIRST IS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MN AND WI THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS THE
DECAYING MCS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TOWARD WESTERN
MN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY AS IT APPROACHES W MN AS IT MOVES
INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR WEST-
CENTRAL MN THROUGH LATE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMNANT MCV FROM THE MCS LIKELY PLAYS A ROLE IN WHAT DEVELOPS
AND WHERE IT HAPPENS BUT THESE STORMS REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. THE
OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WI TODAY. AGAIN, SHOULD
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK LESS FAVORABLE TONIGHT OTHER
THAN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ACROSS W MN.
ALOFT, THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING POTENT RIDGING
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SET UP A
BROAD AREA OF EARLY SEASON HEAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS.
WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. SO TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS IT STAYS
MOSTLY DRY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THIS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW EXTREME HEAT HEADLINE CONCERNS. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (50+ KTS) WILL SHIFT TOWARD MN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AND LIFT NORTHEAST FROM SW MN THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO N
WI/NE MN BY WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING. ANY SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN. IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME TO SEE AN MCS
OR TWO IN THIS REGIME. SPC DID MAINTAIN THEIR SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5)
FOR W MN.
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT DOESN'T LOOK AS FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY
SFC DEW POINTS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S STILL LIKELY. THIS WILL PLACE A HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST
CHANCE TO SEE 100+F APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN GIVEN THEIR LONGER DURATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REPLENISH INSTABILITY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SETTING THE STAGE POTENTIALLY FOR NUMEROUS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 3 HIGHLIGHTS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
SEVERE CONCERN WITH A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED RISK (3 OF 5) OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ENHANCED TO
THE NORTH INTO N WI AND NORTHWEST INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD IN A
FUTURE UPDATE. THE TWIN CITIES WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE METRO MEANING THE WORST OF IT SHOULD (KEY WORD)
BE TO EAST, BUT TIMING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO BREAK ANY CAPPING IN PLACE WITH ANY
INITIAL CONVECTION QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TIME TO IRON OUT
BUT WEDNESDAY SHOULD PROVE A BUSY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLDER
& DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY AND WILL STICK AROUND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TREND DOWN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S AND LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE A MUCH NEEDED BREAK AFTER A
RATHER ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN
GUIDANCE THAT A LONGER BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AS WESTERN NOAM RIDGING WILL INDUCE TROUGHING ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN MID-JUNE ARE
STILL VERY PLEASANT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER
WESTERN MN, THE TWIN CITIES, AND WEST-CENTRAL WI. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AS THIS MORNING PROGRESSES, WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY AT EAU WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP TO 4SM. KEPT PROB30 AT AXN THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CHANCE OF
A SECOND ROUND OF -TSRA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK APART/LIFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BUT, CAMS
SUGGEST FOG WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS WESTERN WI WHERE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAIN AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.
KMSP...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR MSP THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR AROUND 21Z BUT THEN LIKELY FALL BACK TO MVFR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. CAMS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
TUESDAY MORNING BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR, BCMG MVFR W/TSRA. WIND S 15-20G30 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...CTG
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