842
FXUS63 KMPX 081818
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
118 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS SETTLES IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ARE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC HIGHLIGHTS TWO AREAS OF ACTIVITY. THE
FIRST IS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MN AND WI THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS THE
DECAYING MCS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TOWARD WESTERN
MN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY AS IT APPROACHES W MN AS IT MOVES
INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR WEST-
CENTRAL MN THROUGH LATE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMNANT MCV FROM THE MCS LIKELY PLAYS A ROLE IN WHAT DEVELOPS
AND WHERE IT HAPPENS BUT THESE STORMS REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. THE
OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WI TODAY. AGAIN, SHOULD
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK LESS FAVORABLE TONIGHT OTHER
THAN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ACROSS W MN.
ALOFT, THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING POTENT RIDGING
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SET UP A
BROAD AREA OF EARLY SEASON HEAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS.
WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. SO TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS IT STAYS
MOSTLY DRY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THIS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW EXTREME HEAT HEADLINE CONCERNS. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (50+ KTS) WILL SHIFT TOWARD MN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AND LIFT NORTHEAST FROM SW MN THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO N
WI/NE MN BY WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING. ANY SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN. IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME TO SEE AN MCS
OR TWO IN THIS REGIME. SPC DID MAINTAIN THEIR SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5)
FOR W MN.
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT DOESN'T LOOK AS FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY
SFC DEW POINTS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S STILL LIKELY. THIS WILL PLACE A HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST
CHANCE TO SEE 100+F APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN GIVEN THEIR LONGER DURATION IN THE WARM SECTOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REPLENISH INSTABILITY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SETTING THE STAGE POTENTIALLY FOR NUMEROUS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 3 HIGHLIGHTS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
SEVERE CONCERN WITH A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED RISK (3 OF 5) OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ENHANCED TO
THE NORTH INTO N WI AND NORTHWEST INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD IN A
FUTURE UPDATE. THE TWIN CITIES WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE METRO MEANING THE WORST OF IT SHOULD (KEY WORD)
BE TO EAST, BUT TIMING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO BREAK ANY CAPPING IN PLACE WITH ANY
INITIAL CONVECTION QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TIME TO IRON OUT
BUT WEDNESDAY SHOULD PROVE A BUSY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLDER
& DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY AND WILL STICK AROUND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TREND DOWN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S AND LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE A MUCH NEEDED BREAK AFTER A
RATHER ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN
GUIDANCE THAT A LONGER BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AS WESTERN NOAM RIDGING WILL INDUCE TROUGHING ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN MID-JUNE ARE
STILL VERY PLEASANT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ODDS OF IMPACTS AT ANY GIVEN TAF
SITE ARE LOW, BUT BRIEF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. CHANCES FOR ANY
THUNDER ARE HIGHEST ACROSS WESTERN MN, AT AXN/RWF/MKT.
CEILINGS HAVE MOSTLY RISEN TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA & WILL STAY
THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER & WIDESPREAD MIST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG & VISIBILITY BELOW 1 SM
EXIST. EVEN WHERE WE DON'T SEE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY, CEILINGS MAY
DROP TO IFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
CEILINGS & VISIBILITY IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY.
KMSP...CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OVER THE NEXT HOUR,
BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LOW THE REST OF TODAY.
CEILINGS & VISIBILITY DROP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IF CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FARTHER, IFR
CEILINGS LOOK MORE LIKELY THAN IFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE FOG
EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY WITHIN THE NEARBY RIVER VALLEYS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...EARLY AM IFR/-TSRA LIKELY. CHANCE AFTERNOON IFR/+TSRA
WIND S 15-20G30 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHANCE PM -TSRA. WIND W 10-15G25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 15G30KT.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA
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