628
FXUS63 KMPX 091622
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1122 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. LESS
CERTAINTY ON WHEN & WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP. EASTERN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TODAY:
LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
& WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL, IT'S GOING TO BE HOT & MUGGY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
& DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S LEADING TO HEAT INDICES ABOVE 90 THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE INTERESTING TO OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY IS THE
COMPLEX OF DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA & SOUTH DAKOTA. THE REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, PROVIDING A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OUR MORNING WEATHER BALLOON SHOWED COOLER
UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN EXPECTED, MEANING THE CAPPING
INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
INITIATE ALONG THE OLD THUNDERSTORM BOUNDARIES. A FEW HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS PICK UP ON THIS POTENTIAL, BUT ARE WIDELY
SPREAD ON HOW THE THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THEY BECOME SEVERE & LEAD TO A MUCH EARLIER
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON & INTO THIS EVENING. IF THE CAPPING IS ABLE TO HOLD
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WE'LL STAY DRY INTO THIS EVENING WITH OUR
ATTENTION THE TURNING TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE, OR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS, &
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT (10 PM-
MIDNIGHT). THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE OVERNIGHT, BUT
WE'LL STILL HAVE 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE FOR THESE
STORMS TO WORK WITH AS THEY ENTER WESTERN MINNESOTA. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS, BUT A FEW QUICK TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
WITHIN THE LINE. HOW FAR EAST THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS &
DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES INTO MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT & INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER WE'LL STILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO AT LEAST SOME
SURFACE- BASED CAPE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MEANING A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS STILL EXISTS INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LINE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE
VERY FAST MOVING WITH STORM MOTIONS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE, SO
TIMING-WISE WE'RE LOOKING AT A WINDOW OF 11 PM-2 AM FOR WESTERN
MN, 1 AM-4 AM FOR EASTERN MN, & 3 AM-6 AM FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WEDNESDAY:
THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE, MEANING WE SHOULD SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF REMNANT
PRECIPITATION & CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT OUR HEATING POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HOW THE REST OF THE DAY UNFOLDS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS
AMONG HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. A HIGER-END ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON WITH OVER 2000
J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE & 35-40 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR OVER THE
AREA, THE QUESTION IS JUST WHERE STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP & HOW
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP LOOK TO
BE SUPERCELLULAR, MEANING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, ALONG WITH
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY, THESE SUPERCELLS WILL
MERGE & PRODUCE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STORMS, AT WHICH
POINT THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD BECOMES DAMAGING WIND.
GENERALLY, THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS THAT STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP
NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA MID-AFTERNOON,
THEN MERGE INTO THE CLUSTERS/LINES OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SPC
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THAT IDEA WITH THE ENHANCED RISK & GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES/WIND ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A FEW HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT, THEN THESE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE EAST.
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE FAST MOVING, MEANING THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE OVER ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE EVENING (8-10 PM). THIS
SHOULD ALSO LIMIT THE FLOODING THREAT AS ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ONLY FALL OVER A GIVEN AREA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
THURSDAY:
A FEW MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CLIPPING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH & EAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA&
WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT OTHERWISE WE'LL SEE A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAI-THIS WEEKEND:
A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION & LINGERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HEAT BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND & INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MEANING WE'LL SEE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S & LOWS IN THE 40S & 50S. A FEW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BUT LITTLE OR NOW CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MOST SITES START OFF WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN MVFR TO IFR
RANGE. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. A MIX OF MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. ATTENTION
TURNS TO TONIGHT'S TS POTENTIAL. I HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR
TSRA AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH THAT AN MCS
WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE FROM W MN TO W WI TONIGHT. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10KTS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S.
KMSP... INITIAL LOW STRATUS AND BR WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. TSRA TIMING W/PROB30 FOR TONIGHT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING
ON WHAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...EARLY AM IFR/-TSRA LIKELY. CHANCE AFTERNOON IFR/+TSRA
WIND S 15-20G30 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHANCE PM -TSRA. WIND W 10-15G25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 15G30KT.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BPH
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