120
FXUS63 KMPX 100049
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
749 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. LESS
CERTAINTY ON WHEN & WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP. EASTERN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TODAY:
LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
& WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL, IT'S GOING TO BE HOT & MUGGY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S & DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S LEADING TO HEAT INDICES ABOVE 90 THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE INTERESTING TO OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY IS THE
COMPLEX OF DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA & SOUTH DAKOTA. THE REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, PROVIDING A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OUR MORNING WEATHER BALLOON SHOWED COOLER
UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN EXPECTED, MEANING THE CAPPING
INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
INITIATE ALONG THE OLD THUNDERSTORM BOUNDARIES. A FEW HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS PICK UP ON THIS POTENTIAL, BUT ARE WIDELY
SPREAD ON HOW THE THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THEY BECOME SEVERE & LEAD TO A MUCH EARLIER
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON & INTO THIS EVENING. IF THE CAPPING IS ABLE TO HOLD
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WE'LL STAY DRY INTO THIS EVENING WITH OUR
ATTENTION THE TURNING TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LINE, OR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS, &
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT (10 PM-
MIDNIGHT). THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE OVERNIGHT, BUT
WE'LL STILL HAVE 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE FOR THESE
STORMS TO WORK WITH AS THEY ENTER WESTERN MINNESOTA. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS, BUT A FEW QUICK TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
WITHIN THE LINE. HOW FAR EAST THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS &
DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES INTO MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT & INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WE'LL STILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-
BASED CAPE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MEANING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS STILL EXISTS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LINE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY FAST
MOVING WITH STORM MOTIONS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE, SO TIMING-WISE
WE'RE LOOKING AT A WINDOW OF 11 PM-2 AM FOR WESTERN MN, 1 AM-4
AM FOR EASTERN MN, & 3 AM-6 AM FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WEDNESDAY:
THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE, MEANING WE SHOULD SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF REMNANT
PRECIPITATION & CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT OUR HEATING POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HOW THE REST OF THE DAY UNFOLDS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS
AMONG HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. A HIGER-END ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON WITH OVER
2000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE & 35-40 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR OVER
THE AREA, THE QUESTION IS JUST WHERE STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP &
HOW EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP LOOK
TO BE SUPERCELLULAR, MEANING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, ALONG
WITH TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY, THESE SUPERCELLS
WILL MERGE & PRODUCE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STORMS, AT
WHICH POINT THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD BECOMES DAMAGING WIND.
GENERALLY, THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS THAT STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP
NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA MID-AFTERNOON,
THEN MERGE INTO THE CLUSTERS/LINES OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SPC
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THAT IDEA WITH THE ENHANCED RISK & GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES/WIND ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A FEW HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT, THEN THESE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE EAST.
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE FAST MOVING, MEANING THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE OVER ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE EVENING (8-10 PM). THIS
SHOULD ALSO LIMIT THE FLOODING THREAT AS ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ONLY FALL OVER A GIVEN AREA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
THURSDAY:
A FEW MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CLIPPING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH & EAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA&
WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT OTHERWISE WE'LL SEE A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAI-THIS WEEKEND:
A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION & LINGERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HEAT BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND & INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MEANING WE'LL SEE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S & LOWS IN THE 40S & 50S. A FEW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BUT LITTLE OR NOW CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR TO START FOR ALL SITES WITH VARYING MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL FEW-
SCT COVERAGE. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT AN MCS WILL TRAVERSE MN-WI OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE 04Z-10Z TIMEFRAME FROM WESTERN TAF SITES TO EASTERN TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR, MAINLY DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WITH A SHARP DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ANY GIVEN
TERMINAL. HAVE KEPT THE TS MENTION TO JUST THE TEMPO SO AS TO
NOT THRUST A 3-4HR SOLID TS WINDOW AT ANY GIVEN SITE. CONDITIONS
WILL TEMPER DOWN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THRU DAYBREAK, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN FAR EASTERN MN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WEDNESDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE
FOR TONIGHT, BUT THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WI
SITES, POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST AS MSP.
KMSP...FIRST ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS MSP IN THE
08Z-10Z TIMEFRAME PER DECENT MULTI-CAM AGREEMENT. CEILINGS
LIKELY DOWN TO MVFR WHILE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR-OR-LOWER,
DEPENDED ON RAINFALL INTENSITY. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY TO COME WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT'S
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONCLUDE PRIOR TO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
PUSH, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIDE EAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER MSP WILL BE IMPACTED, THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED THE PROB30. EVEN IF THE STORMS DO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT
MSP, ROUTES EASTWARD OF MSP WILL BE IMPACTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. -RA LIKELY. SLIGHT CHC PM -TSRA. WIND SW 5-10KTS
BECOMING W 10-15G25KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 15G30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC
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