264
FXUS63 KMPX 101107
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
SEVERE MODES ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL,
AND TORNADOES. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT FAVORS EASTERN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC HIGHLIGHTS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCHING FROM WINNIPEG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A DECAYING MCS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF
NEBRASKA HAS BEGUN TO MERGE WITH THE EASTERLY MOVING CONVECTION
OVER SODAK. THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRACK ENE INTO SW/W MN
SHORTLY BY 1 AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MPX FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MN UNTIL 4 AM. LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST MAY
NEED AN ADDITIONAL WATCH, BUT THAT WILL BE DETERMINED AT A LATER
TIME.
TONIGHT'S SEVERE THREAT COMES IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE THAT
IS DRIVEN BY A POTENT 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THE SQUALL LINE
WILL HAVE A RESERVOIR OF ABUNDANT INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE PRESENT OVER W & C MN. A
QUICK MESOANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS 1500 J/KG DCAPE OVER W MN, 35-40
KTS OF EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR, AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY WANE, THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD WITH THE LINE OF STORMS, BUT A FEW QUICK QLCS
TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITHIN THE LINE. THE APEX OF THE
SQUALL LINE SHOULD TRACK FROM W MN THROUGH E MN AND INTO W WI BY
DAYBREAK. HOW MUCH SEVERE THREAT WILL THE LINE HAVE WHEN IT
MAKES IT INTO THE TWIN CITIES AND WESTERN WISCONSIN IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE THE
EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME.
THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 75+
MPH OVER SODAK EARLIER TONIGHT AND IS MOVING INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT THAT SHORT LIVED QLCS
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER W MN. MY IMMEDIATE
CONCERN IS THAT THE MERGER BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVING
DECAYING MCS/MCV AND THE EASTERLY MOVING SQUALL WILL MERGE AND
ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT... AT LEAST INITIALLY ACROSS FAR E SD
AND W MN.
ON WEDNESDAY, WE'LL DRY OUT BY MID-MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCS. HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS LEFT OVER TO LIMIT THE
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON'S SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE DOES LIMIT HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRES UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
ALLOWING 2000 TO 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE TO POOL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER END SEVERE
WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WITH 40+ KTS OF BULK SHEAR, SUFFICIENT LAPSE
RATES, AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE ALOFT. THERE ARE A FEW
QUESTIONS THAT REMAIN LESS CERTAIN. WHEN AND WHERE WILL THE
INITIAL STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON? CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE
FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG I-35 BEFORE MOVING
INTO W WI. INITIAL STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL
SEVERE MODES INCLUDING LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS W WI THAT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL
QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX THAT'LL PRIMARILY
POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS W WI. SEVERE THREAT WRAPS UP
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WE'LL LOOK TO DRY OUT & COOL DOWN
OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW, BUT AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY. A MUCH COOLER & DRIER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE IN FRIDAY AND STICK AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWNSTREAM TO THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (THAT'S HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NEAR 70) WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S... A WELCOME BREAK FOR THE AC UNITS
ACROSS MN AND W WI. A FEW ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST,
PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY, BUT OVER A MUCH DRIER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR TO START FOR ALL MN SITES AND RNH BUT EAU WILL START OFF
MVFR-IFR WITH TSRA. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN FAR
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS WI THIS
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO MORE HEAVILY
IMPACT THE WI SITES, POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS MSP. LEANING ON
PROB30S FOR E MN AND WI SITES AND CAN ADJUST WHEN CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN POST
TSRA WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
KMSP... VFR TO START THE PERIOD AS TS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO
WESTERN WI. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE EAST. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER MSP WILL BE IMPACTED, THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED THE PROB30. EVEN IF THE STORMS DO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT
MSP, ROUTES EASTWARD OF MSP WILL BE IMPACTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. -RA LIKELY. SLIGHT CHC PM -TSRA. WIND SW 5-10KTS
BECOMING W 10-15G25KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 15G30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH
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