142
FXUS63 KMPX 101848
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
148 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. LESS
CERTAINTY ON THE THREAT ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA, ALTHOUGH THE
OVERALL THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LOWER.
- LARGE HAIL & DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
- MUCH COOLER THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR-SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA & HAVE
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN
THREAT AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
AS THESE CELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS & NEW CELLS DEVELOP &
INTENSIFY. LARGE HAIL (A FEW 2"+ HAILSTONES POSSIBLE) & DAMAGING
WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. HELICITY VALUES (LOW-LEVEL SPIN)
HAVE TRENDED LOWER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN, SO THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER BUT STILL-NON-ZERO.
OVERALL, WE'VE SEEN A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN OUR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING & ESPECIALLY FORECASTS FROM THE LAST TWO
DAYS. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT DID ACT TO REDUCE OUR
INSTABILITY THIS MORNING, BUT THE MAIN CULPRIT IS THE EARLIER ONSET
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON - BEFORE
INSTABILITY REALLY PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN TREND TO MONITOR
THIS AFTERNOON, & MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, WILL
BE HOW MUCH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WE SEE BACK BEHIND THE ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, WE'VE
SEEN THE MOST NEW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO FURTHER INTENSIFY.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ON THE ORDER OF 6.5-7 C/KM, WHICH ARE NOT EXACTLY FAVORABLE FOR
"EXPLOSIVE" DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE &
SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. OUR 18Z WEATHER BALLOON
WILL GIVE US A BETTER VIEW OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ESPECIALLY
CAPPING/LAPSE RATES ALOFT, & ALLOW FOR ABETTER EVALUATION OF THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, & SOUTHEAST MN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW THOUGH, ANY THREAT LOOKS
TO BE MORE ISOLATED WITH HAIL & A FEW WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE ONGOING SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL EXIT OUR AREA
BY 2-3 PM, & THEN WE WAIT & SEE HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WE
GET INTO LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WE COULD SEE A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS INITIATE ACROSS FAR-
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP,
THEN WE COULD SEE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH TONIGHT LOOKING QUIET.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
LIKELY MITIGATING THE THREAT FOR FOG OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY
MIST IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY THURSDAY AS WE END UP IN THE DEFORMATION REGION NORTHWEST OF
THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
IN THE LOW 70S. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS THEN MOVES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT & LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND & INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEANING WE'LL SEE
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S & LOWS IN THE 40S
& 50S. A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BUT LITTLE OR
NOW CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN OR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. FURTHER WEST, ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT KSTC AND
ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE PROB30 AT KMSP. WILL LIKELY NEED A
HANDFUL OF AMDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN/IF STORMS START TO
FIRE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY GO WESTERLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
10KTS OR LESS.
KMSP...WATCHING STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR KMKT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE STORMS AND IF STORMS INITIALIZE ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE HAVE JUST SENT UP A
SPECIAL BALLOON TO HELP GIVE US A BETTER IDEA OF OUR ENVIRONMENT
AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES DECREASE QUICKLY
AFTER 00-02Z, WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW,
SHOWERS RETURN BY LATE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND W 15G30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...DYE
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