289
FXUS63 KMPX 110533
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
LESS CERTAINTY ON THE THREAT ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA,
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LOWER.
- LARGE HAIL & DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
- MUCH COOLER THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR-SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA &
HAVE QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE MAIN THREAT AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS THESE CELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARDS & NEW CELLS DEVELOP & INTENSIFY. LARGE HAIL (A FEW 2"+
HAILSTONES POSSIBLE) & DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. HELICITY VALUES (LOW-LEVEL SPIN) HAVE TRENDED LOWER
THAN EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN, SO
THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER BUT STILL-NON-ZERO.
OVERALL, WE'VE SEEN A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN OUR SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING & ESPECIALLY FORECASTS FROM THE
LAST TWO DAYS. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT DID ACT TO
REDUCE OUR INSTABILITY THIS MORNING, BUT THE MAIN CULPRIT IS THE
EARLIER ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON - BEFORE INSTABILITY REALLY PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN TREND TO MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON, & MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST, WILL BE HOW MUCH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WE SEE
BACK BEHIND THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, WE'VE SEEN THE MOST NEW CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
6.5-7 C/KM, WHICH ARE NOT EXACTLY FAVORABLE FOR "EXPLOSIVE"
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE & SURFACE-
BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. OUR 18Z WEATHER BALLOON WILL
GIVE US A BETTER VIEW OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ESPECIALLY
CAPPING/LAPSE RATES ALOFT, & ALLOW FOR ABETTER EVALUATION OF THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, &
SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW THOUGH,
ANY THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE ISOLATED WITH HAIL & A FEW WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE ONGOING SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL EXIT OUR
AREA BY 2-3 PM, & THEN WE WAIT & SEE HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WE GET INTO LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD SEE A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
INITIATE ACROSS FAR- SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. IF
THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEN WE COULD SEE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH TONIGHT LOOKING QUIET.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
LIKELY MITIGATING THE THREAT FOR FOG OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME
PATCHY MIST IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK LIKELY THURSDAY AS WE END UP IN THE DEFORMATION
REGION NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER IN THE LOW 70S. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN
AIRMASS THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT &
LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND & INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEANING WE'LL SEE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S & LOWS IN THE 40S & 50S. A FEW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BUT LITTLE OR NOW CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD, BUT
SKIES WILL TURN TO BROKEN FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AS
OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN
THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (EXCEPT FOR RWF AND AXN). MUCH OF THIS RAIN
SHOULD BE STEADY WITH VISIBILITIES OF 4-6SM. THOUGH, CAMS DO
HINT OF A CHANCE OF -TSRA AT AXN IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED
A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT. RAIN ENDS BY EVENING AND MN TERMINALS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR. BUT, WI TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR AS
LOW CLOUDS COULD BE STUBBORN TO CLEAR. LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD REACH 20 KNOTS ACROSS MN.
WINDS SLOW AND BECOME WESTERLY IN THE EVENING.
KMSP...RAIN LOOKS HAPPEN FROM 17-23Z BUT RAINFALL RATES
SHOULDN'T BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO BE IMPACTFUL. CIGS WILL FALL TO
NEAR 2500 FEET NEAR 20Z BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND W 15G30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...CTG
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