679
FXUS63 KMPX 110734
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
234 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY.
- A BREAK FROM THE HEAT & HUMIDITY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MUCH COOLER & DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY
AND IS FORECAST TO STICK AROUND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. TODAY'S
FORECAST WILL BE COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A QUICK MOVING SFC LOW WILL TREK ALONG THE SFC
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM IOWA THROUGH WISCONSIN
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT WILL PLACE US ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SFC LOW MEANING WE'LL END UP IN THE DEFORMATION REGION. THIS MEANS
WE'LL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT TODAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN BY MID-
MORNING AND WRAP UP MID-LATE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL VARY
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA - UP
TO A QUARTER INCH. HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN - UP TO HALF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND
MUCH OF THE DAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WE'LL SEE A TRANSITION TO A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
ALOFT, THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER
THE HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE WESTERN US TO THE GULF OF ALASKA
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WOULD BE AN IDEAL WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN FOR COLD AND SNOW IF IT WAS JANUARY, BUT IN SUMMER
IT'S GOING TO USHER IN A RATHER PLEASANT STRETCH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PAINT TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT'LL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE A NICE
BREAK FROM THE TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST
WEEK OR SO. IF WE LOOK AHEAD TO THE END OF THE MONTH GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOONAL RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS.
THIS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A WARMER, MORE HUMID PATTERN FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF JUNE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD, BUT
SKIES WILL TURN TO BROKEN FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AS
OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN MN
THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (EXCEPT FOR RWF AND AXN). MUCH OF THIS RAIN
SHOULD BE STEADY WITH VISIBILITIES OF 4-6SM. THOUGH, CAMS DO
HINT OF A CHANCE OF -TSRA AT AXN IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED
A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT. RAIN ENDS BY EVENING AND MN TERMINALS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR. BUT, WI TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR AS
LOW CLOUDS COULD BE STUBBORN TO CLEAR. LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD REACH 20 KNOTS ACROSS MN.
WINDS SLOW AND BECOME WESTERLY IN THE EVENING.
KMSP...RAIN LOOKS HAPPEN FROM 17-23Z BUT RAINFALL RATES
SHOULDN'T BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO BE IMPACTFUL. CIGS WILL FALL TO
NEAR 2500 FEET NEAR 20Z BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND W 15G30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...CTG
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