289
FXUS63 KMPX 111717
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1217 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY.
- A BREAK FROM THE HEAT & HUMIDITY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MUCH COOLER & DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY
AND IS FORECAST TO STICK AROUND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. TODAY'S
FORECAST WILL BE COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A QUICK MOVING SFC LOW WILL TREK ALONG THE SFC
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM IOWA THROUGH WISCONSIN
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT WILL PLACE US ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SFC LOW MEANING WE'LL END UP IN THE DEFORMATION REGION. THIS MEANS
WE'LL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT TODAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN BY MID-
MORNING AND WRAP UP MID-LATE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL VARY
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA - UP
TO A QUARTER INCH. HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN - UP TO HALF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND
MUCH OF THE DAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WE'LL SEE A TRANSITION TO A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
ALOFT, THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER
THE HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM THE WESTERN US TO THE GULF OF ALASKA
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WOULD BE AN IDEAL WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN FOR COLD AND SNOW IF IT WAS JANUARY, BUT IN SUMMER
IT'S GOING TO USHER IN A RATHER PLEASANT STRETCH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PAINT TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT'LL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE A NICE
BREAK FROM THE TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST
WEEK OR SO. IF WE LOOK AHEAD TO THE END OF THE MONTH GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOONAL RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS.
THIS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A WARMER, MORE HUMID PATTERN FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF JUNE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
THE EVENING. THIS RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CIGS AND VIS BETWEEN 4-6SM THROUGH
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM TAFS.
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENING WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS AND
VRB THROUGH 14-15Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME WESTERLY LATE
MORNING FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20+ KTS.
KMSP...RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z, BUT RAINFALL RATES
SHOULDN'T BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CATEGORICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
CIGS COULD FALL NEAR HIGH-END MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT VFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND W AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW AT 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW AT 12-17 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...PV
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