040
FXUS63 KMPX 112004
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL MN & WESTERN WI. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL.
- BELOW-NROMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED FOR POCKETS OF
HEATING & INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP, & A AS A RESULT WE ARE SEEING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY HAIL OR WIND OUT OF THESE
STORMS, BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHTING AT TIMES FOR ANY OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN COOLER & DRIER
AIR ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA. WE'LL LIKELY SEE A A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING, MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES SHOW
500-1000 J/KG OF MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH 40-50 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR, & MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DO
DEPICT A FEW ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE TOO
PALTRY TO RESULT IN MUCH OF A WIND OR TORNADO THREAT, BUT SOME
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY ALONG
WITH THE LIGHTING RISK. THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT ALONG THE
FRONT MOSTLY ENDS BY MIDNIGHT, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS &A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE AS HEATING RAMPS UP
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT & THEN WE'RE EXPECTING
A PLEASANTLY COOL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING & NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY UP AROUND 70 DEGREES WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOW FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DEW POINT VALUES WILL BE
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AS WELL. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
DURING THIS STRETCH OF COOLER & DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE COOL END LATER IN THE WEEK BUT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE PERTURBATION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
MEANING WE COULD SEE MORE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL &
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
THE EVENING. THIS RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CIGS AND VIS BETWEEN 4-6SM THROUGH
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM TAFS.
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENING WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS AND
VRB THROUGH 14-15Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME WESTERLY LATE
MORNING FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20+ KTS.
KMSP...RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z, BUT RAINFALL RATES
SHOULDN'T BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CATEGORICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
CIGS COULD FALL NEAR HIGH-END MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT VFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND W AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW AT 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW AT 12-17 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...PV
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