523
FXUS63 KMPX 121801
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
101 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI, SOME COULD BE STRONG WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHT (10-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
OVERALL, LITTLE TO NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND FAIR/QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR MID JUNE. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TO THE
FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LATE NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY...
THE FIRST HALF OF YOUR DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE. COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE A MID-LEVEL LOBE OF ENERGY ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DP
TEMPS IN 50S) WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI.
LOOKING AT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE WITH 50 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WHEN
SHOWERS/STORMS DO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEY WILL
BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED AND LOW-TOPPED. THE SOMEWHAT STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND 50 KNOTS OF SHEAR FAVOR SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS, HOW SUFFICIENT
WILL THE 250-500 J/KG OF CAPE BE? THAT SAID, AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD POSE A
THREAT FOR SOME HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. SOMETHING
WE WILL BE MONITORING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WEEKEND...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST BY
SATURDAY WITH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DRYING OUT IN IT'S
WAKE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN MN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MID JUNE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE AREA, UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
FOR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE SAME CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NEXT WEEK...
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EAST HALF OF
CANADA AND CONUS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. ONE OF THE MORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES WILL BE THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES, DP TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
LOW-END/SLIGHT (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT DROPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
THEREAFTER, DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED
ENSEMBLE SUITES SHOW MOISTURE AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASING
BY LATE NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU EXIST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER IT IS BREEZY. ALL SITES HAVE REPORTED
WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ONCE
WE LOOSE DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL DEVELOP LOW-VFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST SITES AFTER 01Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT WHERE AXN SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
MAINTAINED PROB30 MENTIONS AT STC. THE REST THE SITES HAVE BEEN
GIVEN TEMPOS FOR MVFR TSRA WITH PREVAILING SHRA. PRECIP SHOULD
CLEAR LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BE CLEAR FORM ALL SITES BY
THE 12Z TIMEFRAME. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, BREEZY NW'LY FLOW
WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS UP BETWEEN 20-25KTS FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING.
KMSP...WESTERLY GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL TRANSITION TO BKN/OVC AS A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS 01Z THIS EVENING WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY BETWEEN 02-05Z. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR MSP PRIOR TO 10Z. POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE, BREEZY NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 20-25KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...VFR/CHC MVFR -SHRA LATE. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR/CHC MVFR -SHRA LATE. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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