987
FXUS63 KMPX 121953
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
253 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
QUITE THE CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE HOT & MUGGY WEATHER WE
SAW EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS DRIER CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMEPRATURES TO APPROACH 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WHILE
MIXING FROM BREEZY WEST WINDS IS RESULTING IN VERY COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS FOR JUNE IN THE 40S. THE MAIN COLD FRONT AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER CANADIAN AIRMASS IS STILL ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARDS THIS
EVENING & INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A NARROW REGION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THEY VERY
SLIGHTLY ON JUTS HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR NEAR 50 KTS
IS PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT, BUT INSTABILITY VALUES WILL LIKELY
ONLY REACH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST BY THE TIME STORMS DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. THUS, WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE
OF SMALL HAIL & BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT, BUT NO SUSTAINED OR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT, BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPS TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTHWARDS INTO IOWA & WISCONSIN.
ANY PRECIPITATION TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR-SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS LIMITED TO IOWA & SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
A PLEASANT SUMMER WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
SETTLES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WITH ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH VERY COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S, POSSIBLE
EVEN 30S ON SUNDAY. MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS RH VALUES DIP BELOW
30% AND WINDS GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH. THE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STICK WITH US THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
BROAD TROUGHING & COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A FEW PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW COULD GIVE US
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY & AGAIN MIDWEEK, BUT NO HEAVY RAIN OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. WE LOOK TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
WARMER & MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU EXIST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER IT IS BREEZY. ALL SITES HAVE REPORTED
WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ONCE
WE LOOSE DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL DEVELOP LOW-VFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST SITES AFTER 01Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT WHERE AXN SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
MAINTAINED PROB30 MENTIONS AT STC. THE REST THE SITES HAVE BEEN
GIVEN TEMPOS FOR MVFR TSRA WITH PREVAILING SHRA. PRECIP SHOULD
CLEAR LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BE CLEAR FORM ALL SITES BY
THE 12Z TIMEFRAME. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, BREEZY NW'LY FLOW
WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS UP BETWEEN 20-25KTS FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING.
KMSP...WESTERLY GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL TRANSITION TO BKN/OVC AS A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS 01Z THIS EVENING WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY BETWEEN 02-05Z. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR MSP PRIOR TO 10Z. POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE, BREEZY NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 20-25KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...VFR/CHC MVFR -SHRA LATE. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR/CHC MVFR -SHRA LATE. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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