495
FXUS63 KMPX 130017
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
717 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
QUITE THE CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE HOT & MUGGY WEATHER WE
SAW EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS DRIER CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMEPRATURES TO APPROACH 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WHILE
MIXING FROM BREEZY WEST WINDS IS RESULTING IN VERY COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS FOR JUNE IN THE 40S. THE MAIN COLD FRONT AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER CANADIAN AIRMASS IS STILL ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARDS THIS
EVENING & INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A NARROW REGION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THEY VERY
SLIGHTLY ON JUTS HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR NEAR 50 KTS
IS PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT, BUT INSTABILITY VALUES WILL LIKELY
ONLY REACH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST BY THE TIME STORMS DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. THUS, WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE
OF SMALL HAIL & BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT, BUT NO SUSTAINED OR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT, BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPS TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTHWARDS INTO IOWA & WISCONSIN.
ANY PRECIPITATION TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR-SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS LIMITED TO IOWA & SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
A PLEASANT SUMMER WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
SETTLES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WITH ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH VERY COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S, POSSIBLE
EVEN 30S ON SUNDAY. MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS RH VALUES DIP BELOW
30% AND WINDS GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH. THE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STICK WITH US THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
BROAD TROUGHING & COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A FEW PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW COULD GIVE US
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY & AGAIN MIDWEEK, BUT NO HEAVY RAIN OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. WE LOOK TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
WARMER & MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS SUNSET
APPROACHES. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT ON
AND OFF DOWNPOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 35 KTS WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST BY THE 10-11Z TIMEFRAME. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES,
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS UP BETWEEN
20-25KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMSP...SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND MAY START JUST BEFORE
01Z, BUT THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 02-05Z. GIVEN
THAT THE STORMS ARE MOVING FAST, WE EXPECT RAIN TO CLEAR OUT
FASTER THAN WAS EXPECTED BEFORE AND HAVE ADJUSTED TO THE END
TIME TO 08Z FOR KMSP. STRONG GUSTS AROUND 30KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...VFR/CHC MVFR -SHRA LATE. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR/CHC MVFR -SHRA LATE. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page