503
FXUS63 KMPX 280409
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1109 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS, BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY IF
IT WILL BE NEAR I-90, I-94, OR SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
- LONG DURATION PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS SUNDAY,
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEK. EXTREME HEAT WATCH ISSUED FOR
MONDAY, BUT HEAT IMPACTS TO BE FELT ALL WEEK WITH LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF AND THEREFORE A BUILDING HEAT STRESS.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER & TORRENTIAL RAIN, IF THEY ARE ABLE
TO FORM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING, AND ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH
FOR MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TODAY AND SUNDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
THESE WILL BE THE LAST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS THAT WE'LL SEE FOR QUITE
SOME TIME AS WARM AND MOIST AIR ALONG AND ADVANCING WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS, AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. THE QUESTION REMAINS ON IF THESES STORMS
WILL WEAKEN, OR MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
THAT THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENTER MINNESOTA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, AND COULD LINGER AS THEY APPROACH WISCONSIN LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT,
SO THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, IF THE STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP A COLD POOL, THAN DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. FOR THIS REASON, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DID EXPAND THE
SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, MAINLY FOR
THAT MORNING CONVECTIVE THREAT.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS HOT
AND HUMID AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, AND A STOUT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL CAP OFF ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE THUNDERSTORM RISK SHIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MAIN CONCERN IS DANGEROUS HEAT ON MONDAY. ASSUMING THE
CONVECTION STAYS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT, HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING, AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
LEAD TO HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DID ISSUE AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA STARTING AT 9AM
MONDAY, AND LASTING THROUGH 8PM.
HEAT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY, AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY AS WELL, WHICH
BRINGS US TO THE NEXT CONCERN - SEVERE STORMS.
THE REASON THE HEAT WATCH WAS ONLY ISSUED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, IS
BECAUSE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS AND CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CATCH-
22 IS THAT HEAT RISK COMPOUNDS WITH LONGER DURATION, MEANING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT POSE A HIGHER THREAT. WE DECIDED TO TAKE
THE HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES DAY-BY-DAY GIVEN THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS.
THE SECONDARY CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN NEXT
WEEK. A DAY3 SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.
THERE IS NO OUTLOOK BEYOND DAY THREE, BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE SPC
DISCUSSION, THE OVERALL PATTERN DOESNT CHANGE. RATHER, THERE IS
SIMPLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES, SINCE IT WILL BE SUBTLE FEATURES THAT DRIVE THEM. SO FOR
THAT REASON, CONTINUED WITH THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND, KNOWING THAT HEAT AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THIS TAF PERIOD WAS TURNING PROB30S INTO
TEMPOS FOR -TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN (RWF, STC, AND
MKT). CAMS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A BOWING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TRAVELING WEST TO EAST ACROSS MN AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN'T CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THESE HAZARDS IN THE TAF. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AT
LEAST MVFR DURING STORMS. CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS MN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR.
MEANWHILE, WI TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO PERIODICALLY FALL TO
MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT AXN AND STC FOR
POSSIBLE -SHRA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE AS A LLJ
PASSES WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. PEAK SUSTAINED VALUES
WILL REACH 15-20 KNOTS WHILE GUSTS REACH 25-30 KNOTS.
KMSP...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE PROB30 TO TEMPO FOR -TSRA
SUNDAY MORNING. CAMS NOW FAVOR A BOWING LINE OF STORMS TRAVELING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN DURING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LINE
WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AS IT TRAVELS EAST. THUS,
THE IMPACT FOR MSP IS UNCERTAIN. MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC PM TSRA. WIND S 15-20G30 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW 10-15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-
SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WI...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-ST.
CROIX.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...CTG
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