543
FXUS63 KMPX 292042
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
342 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES THIS EVENING, AND HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING SOUTH & EAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACH 110F TODAY, AND 100F ON TUESDAY.
- LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, BUT, IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAIN.
- HOT & HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY
AS INTENSE AS TODAY. CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
IT IS HOT. AND IT WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR A WHILE, THOUGH
THANKFULLY TODAY WILL BE THE WORST OF THE HEAT IMPACTS THIS
WEEK. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION, THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF 80F+ HAVE STARTED TO POP
UP THIS AFTERNOON. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STIFLED A LITTLE
MORE THAN EXPECTED BY MORNING CONVECTION AND AFTERNOON CU FIELD.
HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM 100-110F THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BEFORE GETTING SOME RELIEF AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON STORM CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN, DIVIDING THE STATE
IN HALF VERTICALLY. AS COOLER 700 MB TEMPERATURES ADVECT IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME
THE CAP AND INTIATE AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE LINE.
THERE IS AN EXPLOSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (4500+ J/KG OF
MUCAPE), SO ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE OTHER
THING TO WATCH IS A UNSUSPECTING THREAT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE
INCREASING AMOUNT OF SRH VALUES AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS A SHORT
1-3 HOUR WINDOW OF STP VALUES JUMPING TO 3+ JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS THE LLJ INCREASES AND SURFACE WINDS DECREASE JUST
ENOUGH TO HAVE A BETTER HUMP TO HODOGRAPHS. THE EXTENT AND
STRENGTH OF ANY POTENTIAL TORNADO RISK WILL DEPEND ON STORM
COVERAGE AND MODE, WHICH IS UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD VARIANCE ACROSS HI-RES MODELS. THERE ARE SOME MODELS,
LIKE THE 18Z RRFS, WHICH HAVE NOTHING DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS OUR AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS VARIANCE, POPS ARE STILL
LIMITED, BUT THE HIGH END POTENTIAL SHOULD STILL BE MESSAGED.
THERE IS A GROWING SIGNAL FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO ADVECT
NORTH FROM NEBRASKA AND IOWA, ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP SEEING
LESS STORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WOULD NOT HAVE AS
CONDUCIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT, BUT THEY
WOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR HEAT IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY. THE
MORE STORMS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER, THE LESS OF AN IMPACT
FROM HEAT. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE SAW TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN AS A BOW ECHO RACED NORTHEAST. WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN STORM AND CLOUD COVERAGE, WE OPTED TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR A NUMBER OF COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA AS WELL AS WESTERN WISCONSIN. IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT
DRASTICALLY IMPACTED BY STORMS, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO ABOUT 100F TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, NOT TOO MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, KEEPING THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAT DOME. OUR HOT
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ANYWHERE BETWEEN
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S. HEAT RISK WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN AS IT WAS
TODAY, THOUGH THE PERSISTENT HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT AS IT LINGERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
STALL OUT THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A MIX OF LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS TO START THE TAF. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 4 TO 5KFT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS W MN AFTER 00Z
AND TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT'LL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT PUSHES EAST AND LIKELY DOESN'T IMPACT OUR W WI SITES. I HAVE
INTRODUCED A PROB30 AS THE BEST OPTION GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR WITH ANY
TSRA. WINDS S/SE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS FALLING OFF OVERNIGHT. WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT WITH SW WINDS PREVAILING ON
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUND OF TSRA/SHRA IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK,
BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. W WI
SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING
AFTER DAYBREAK. VFR ON TUESDAY.
KMSP...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW VFR/MVFR THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA AFTER 04Z AND A PROB30 HAS BEEN
INCLUDED. ADDITIONAL -SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY
AM, BUT LEFT OUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WIND SW 10-15G25 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA. S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-
LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ANOKA-
BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE
SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-
RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-
RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WI...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-ST. CROIX.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-ST.
CROIX.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR RUSK.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BPH
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