506
FXUS63 KMPX 300542
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES THIS EVENING, AND HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING SOUTH & EAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACH 110F TODAY, AND 100F ON TUESDAY.
- LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, BUT, IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAIN.
- HOT & HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY
AS INTENSE AS TODAY. CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
IT IS HOT. AND IT WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR A WHILE, THOUGH
THANKFULLY TODAY WILL BE THE WORST OF THE HEAT IMPACTS THIS
WEEK. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION, THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF 80F+ HAVE STARTED TO POP
UP THIS AFTERNOON. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STIFLED A LITTLE
MORE THAN EXPECTED BY MORNING CONVECTION AND AFTERNOON CU FIELD.
HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM 100-110F THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BEFORE GETTING SOME RELIEF AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON STORM CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN, DIVIDING THE STATE
IN HALF VERTICALLY. AS COOLER 700 MB TEMPERATURES ADVECT IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME
THE CAP AND INITIATE AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE LINE.
THERE IS AN EXPLOSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (4500+ J/KG OF
MUCAPE), SO ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE OTHER
THING TO WATCH IS A UNSUSPECTING THREAT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE
INCREASING AMOUNT OF SRH VALUES AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS A SHORT
1-3 HOUR WINDOW OF STP VALUES JUMPING TO 3+ JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS THE LLJ INCREASES AND SURFACE WINDS DECREASE JUST
ENOUGH TO HAVE A BETTER HUMP TO HODOGRAPHS. THE EXTENT AND
STRENGTH OF ANY POTENTIAL TORNADO RISK WILL DEPEND ON STORM
COVERAGE AND MODE, WHICH IS UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD VARIANCE ACROSS HI-RES MODELS. THERE ARE SOME MODELS,
LIKE THE 18Z RRFS, WHICH HAVE NOTHING DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS OUR AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS VARIANCE, POPS ARE STILL
LIMITED, BUT THE HIGH END POTENTIAL SHOULD STILL BE MESSAGED.
THERE IS A GROWING SIGNAL FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO ADVECT
NORTH FROM NEBRASKA AND IOWA, ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP SEEING
LESS STORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WOULD NOT HAVE AS
CONDUCIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT, BUT THEY
WOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR HEAT IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY. THE
MORE STORMS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER, THE LESS OF AN IMPACT
FROM HEAT. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE SAW TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN AS A BOW ECHO RACED NORTHEAST. WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN STORM AND CLOUD COVERAGE, WE OPTED TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR A NUMBER OF COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA AS WELL AS WESTERN WISCONSIN. IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT
DRASTICALLY IMPACTED BY STORMS, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO ABOUT 100F TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, NOT TOO MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, KEEPING THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAT DOME. OUR HOT
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ANYWHERE BETWEEN
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S. HEAT RISK WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN AS IT WAS
TODAY, THOUGH THE PERSISTENT HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT AS IT LINGERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
STALL OUT THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS. SCT -TSRA IS SEEN ON RADAR FOR
EAU WITH INSTANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 07Z. SKIES REMAIN
BKN TO OVC AT 5-10 KFT WITH MVFR (BKN AT 2-4 KFT) FOR STC. WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SSW AT 8-13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BECOMING 5-10 KNOTS BY 10Z.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINE OF TSRA, OR MCS-
LIKE FEATURE MOVING NE OUT OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA BEFORE MOVING
INTO MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING. PROB30S REMAIN IN TAFS FOR
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AXN AND STC. IF THIS LINE OF TSRA MAINTAINS
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY DROP TO IFR TO
MVFR. SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND TAFS WILL BE AMENDED IF NEEDED. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY DEPARTING THE AREA BY 12-13Z WITH BKN-OVC SKIES IN
IT'S WAKE. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FEW
AT 5-10 KFT AND FEW TO SCT AT 20-25 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
BKN TO OVC SKIES. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE S/SSW AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TIMEFRAME. HIGH RES
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINE OF TSRA OR MCS-LIKE
FEATURE MOVING NE OUT OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA BEFORE ENTERING
MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING. PROB30S FOR TSRA REMAIN IN THE
TAF. IF SAID LINE OF TSRA MOVES INTO THE METRO VICINITY, FLIGHT
CATEGORIES MAY BECOME IFR TO MVFR BY 10Z. THIS IS SOMETHING WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING IN THE COMING HOURS AND TAF WILL BE
AMENDED IF NEEDED. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DEPARTING
THE METRO AREA BY 12Z WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES IN IT'S WAKE. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WITH FEW AT 5-10 KFT AND FEW-SCT
AT 20-25 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE SW AT 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WIND SW 8-13G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA. S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA. S 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-
SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...LPR
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