708
FXUS63 KMPX 301336
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
- HOT & HUMID AGAIN TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
95-100 F ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 50-60 MPH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARDS OUT NOR NORTHWEST IOWA. A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LIES AHEAD OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SO IT
SHOW NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA & INTO THE TWIN CITIES METRO & WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
50-60 MPH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WHILE IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTH & EAST THAT THREAT MAY CONTINUE.
REGARDLESS, GUSTY WINDS OF AT LEAST 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN ADDITIONAL TO BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARDS AT OVER 50 MPH, MEANING IT'LL REACH THE I-90
CORRIDOR THROUGH 3-4 AM, THE TWIN CITIES & I-35 BY 5-6 AM, &
INTO WESTERN WI THROUGH 6-8 AM.
THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DECAYING & OUT OF OUR AREA BY
8-9 AM, & THEN THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY WE CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING & INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH-RESOLUTIION
MODELS THAT ARE HANDLING THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX STILL
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN MEANING OUR HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
TRACK. ANOTHER TREND TO WATCH WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO BUBBLE UP IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. NOTABLE
IS THAT THE HIGH-RESOLUTIIN MODELS THAT HANDLE THE MORNING
CONVECTION ARE LESS-ROBUST WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, MEANING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE SETTING UP
FARTHER TO OUR EAST OVER CENTRAL & EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX, LOOK LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD & PERSIST LONGER
THROUGH THE MORNING, MEANING TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO BE COOLER
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. IT'L STILL BE MUGGY,
BUT A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT. LOOKING AHEAD -
IT'LL BE MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MUGGY CONDITIONS & MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
INCLUDING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM & HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
TEMPERATURES DO CONTINUE TO LOOK COOLER THAN WE WERE THINKING A
FEW DAYS AGO, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AS OPPOSED TO
90S. THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TO TREND
LOWER, BUT CONTINUE TO TAKE NECESSARY COOLING ACTIONS AS NEEDED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EARLY MORNING
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED WITH SHRA ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH AREAS OF -TSRA OVER STEELE, DODGE, AND OLMSTED COUNTIES IN
SE MN. SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND MOVE NE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SHRA ENDING BY 13-14Z. SKIES REMAIN FEW
TO SCT AT 5-10 KFT WITH BKN TO OVC AT 13-17 KFT. BKN TO OVC WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING WITH FEW-SCT AT 5-10 KFT AND
FEW AT 25 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AT 4-9 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING, OUT
OF THE S/SW.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL COMMENTS OF CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA. WIND SW 8-13G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA. S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC -TSRA. S 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-
SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...LPR
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