241
FXUS63 KMPX 301732
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1232 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
- HOT & HUMID AGAIN TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
95-100 F ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 50-60 MPH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARDS OUT NOR NORTHWEST IOWA. A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LIES AHEAD OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SO IT
SHOW NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA & INTO THE TWIN CITIES METRO & WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
50-60 MPH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WHILE IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTH & EAST THAT THREAT MAY CONTINUE.
REGARDLESS, GUSTY WINDS OF AT LEAST 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN ADDITIONAL TO BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARDS AT OVER 50 MPH, MEANING IT'LL REACH THE I-90
CORRIDOR THROUGH 3-4 AM, THE TWIN CITIES & I-35 BY 5-6 AM, &
INTO WESTERN WI THROUGH 6-8 AM.
THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DECAYING & OUT OF OUR AREA BY
8-9 AM, & THEN THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY WE CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING & INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH-RESOLUTIION
MODELS THAT ARE HANDLING THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX STILL
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN MEANING OUR HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
TRACK. ANOTHER TREND TO WATCH WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO BUBBLE UP IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. NOTABLE
IS THAT THE HIGH-RESOLUTIIN MODELS THAT HANDLE THE MORNING
CONVECTION ARE LESS-ROBUST WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, MEANING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE SETTING UP
FARTHER TO OUR EAST OVER CENTRAL & EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX, LOOK LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD & PERSIST LONGER
THROUGH THE MORNING, MEANING TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO BE COOLER
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. IT'L STILL BE MUGGY,
BUT A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT. LOOKING AHEAD -
IT'LL BE MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MUGGY CONDITIONS & MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
INCLUDING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM & HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
TEMPERATURES DO CONTINUE TO LOOK COOLER THAN WE WERE THINKING A
FEW DAYS AGO, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AS OPPOSED TO
90S. THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TO TREND
LOWER, BUT CONTINUE TO TAKE NECESSARY COOLING ACTIONS AS NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE
PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF EAU WHO WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST TRENDS ARE
FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH, THOUGH A
PROB30 IS WARRANTED GIVEN THE PROXIMITY.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING OUT OF THE SW, THEN SHIFT
MORE S/SE AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR
A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA/IOWA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING, REACHING MANY SITES AROUND 12-16Z. INTRODUCED
A PROB30 WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA MAY CONTINUE AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS ISSUANCE.
KMSP...A FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, TIED TO A
TSRA CHANCE TO SOUTH, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR TSRA IN THE
MORNING IS BETWEEN 12-15Z, AND IT WOULD LIKELY LAST ABOUT 2-3
HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE
FIRST WAVE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z, THOUGH THEY WOULD NOT BE AS
STRONG OR WIDESPREAD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED PM...CHC MVFR AND -TSRA. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA. S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC -TSRA. S 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-
SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BED
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