218
FXUS63 KMPX 010011
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
711 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL.
- A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH A
LEVEL 3/5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WINDS OF 70+ MPH POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- STORMS AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WHERE ROUGHLY 3000-4000
J/KG OF MUCAPE OVERLAP 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. MOST
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FULLY ORGANIZE SO FAR, AND WITH LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT, IT IS LIKELY THAT ANYTHING SEVERE WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED THAN NOT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL, BUT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK THROUGH
10PM TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OCCLUDED LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA, WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WESTERN WI AND INTO NORTHERN IA.
DESPITE HAVING THIS FRONT MOVE THROUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
WARM WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN SOME SPOTS HITTING 90 ALREADY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. IT IS NOT AS
HUMID TODAY FOR AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT MANY LOCATIONS ARE
STILL SEEING UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S CLOSER TO AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM FOR THESE
LOCATIONS, WITH HEAT INDICES MAXING OUT AROUND 95-100 DEGREES.
THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH
FROM IOWA TOMORROW. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE S/SE-ERLY AND
INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE DAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO 1.5-2" BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE INFLUX, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE
EXPECTED, STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A NORTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATING MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF A
STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN MN AND POTENTIALLY WESTERN
WI. ADEQUATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISK. FORCING
DOES WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN MN, SO THIS MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS BETWEEN 5-8AM FOR MUCH
OF MN AND BETWEEN 8-10AM FOR WESTERN WI. THESE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY, SO WE ARE EXPECTING TO CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST
PART BY LATE MORNING. FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL WARM US UP INTO THE
80S AND ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THERMO PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE DURING INITIALIZATION. WE EXPECT STORM
TO CLUSTER TOGETHER AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS, POTENTIALLY MATURING
INTO A BOWING MCS. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WOULD INCREASE WITH WINDS OF 70+ MPH BECOMING POSSIBLE. STORMS
MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN (AROUND
6-8PM) AND THEN MAY NOT EXIT EAST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT
(AROUND 1-2AM). THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 SWO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
LEVEL 3/5 (ENHANCED) RISK FOR TIME PERIOD, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON A
RISK FOR THOSE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS DEPENDING ON STORM MODE.
THIS REMAINS A SITUATION WHERE THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL PLAY
A ROLE ON HOW THE STORM THREAT EVOLVES IN THE EVENING, PRIMARILY
IN INFLUENCING WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THIS
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACTS AS A FIRE HOSE FOR CONVECTION TO
FIRE ALONG. WPC'S LATEST 5-DAY QPF PLACES A BROAD FOOTPRINT OF
2"+ FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND THE MAJORITY OF WI,
AS WELL AS A BULLSEYE OF 5"+ FOR SOUTHEASTERN MN. AS IT ALWAYS
DOES WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE
MORE SPORADIC THAN THIS FORECAST, BUT THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE IDEA
THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER A
SOMEWHAT CONFINED AREA AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY DOES NOT SHIFT
THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
NO CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA
AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS TSRA IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT HAVE
CONVERTED PROB30S TO TEMPOS/PREVAILING FOR ALL BUT KAXN/KSTC.
THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR CONVECTION IS 10Z-16Z FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL
ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPS. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ROUND IS LOW
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THINGS RECOVER FOLLOWING MORNING
STORMS, BUT HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30S FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...ADDED IN PREVAILING SHOWERS BEGINNING AT 11Z, BUT KEPT
THINGS VFR WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR BETWEEN 12-15Z. HOPEFULLY THIS
WINDOW CAN BE NARROWED DOWN WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS
ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
20KTS RETURNING DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WITH A WIDE
RANGE OF HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS TIMING GOES. AS SUCH,
HAVE A LENGTHY PROB30 THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC PM MVFR/-TSRA. WINDS S 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS VRB 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-
SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
UPDATE...BED
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...DYE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page