177
FXUS63 KMPX 010540
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1240 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL.
- A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH A
LEVEL 3/5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WINDS OF 70+ MPH POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- STORMS AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OCCLUDED LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA, WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WESTERN WI AND INTO NORTHERN IA.
DESPITE HAVING THIS FRONT MOVE THROUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
WARM WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN SOME SPOTS HITTING 90 ALREADY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. IT IS NOT AS
HUMID TODAY FOR AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT MANY LOCATIONS ARE
STILL SEEING UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S CLOSER TO AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM FOR THESE
LOCATIONS, WITH HEAT INDICES MAXING OUT AROUND 95-100 DEGREES.
THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH
FROM IOWA TOMORROW. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE S/SE-ERLY AND
INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE DAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO 1.5-2" BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE INFLUX, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE
EXPECTED, STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A NORTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATING MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF A
STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN MN AND POTENTIALLY WESTERN
WI. ADEQUATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISK. FORCING
DOES WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN MN, SO THIS MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS BETWEEN 5-8AM FOR MUCH
OF MN AND BETWEEN 8-10AM FOR WESTERN WI. THESE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY, SO WE ARE EXPECTING TO CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST
PART BY LATE MORNING. FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL WARM US UP INTO THE
80S AND ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THERMO PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE DURING INITIALIZATION. WE EXPECT STORM
TO CLUSTER TOGETHER AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS, POTENTIALLY MATURING
INTO A BOWING MCS. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WOULD INCREASE WITH WINDS OF 70+ MPH BECOMING POSSIBLE. STORMS
MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN (AROUND
6-8PM) AND THEN MAY NOT EXIT EAST UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT
(AROUND 1-2AM). THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 SWO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
LEVEL 3/5 (ENHANCED) RISK FOR TIME PERIOD, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON A
RISK FOR THOSE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS DEPENDING ON STORM MODE.
THIS REMAINS A SITUATION WHERE THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL PLAY
A ROLE ON HOW THE STORM THREAT EVOLVES IN THE EVENING, PRIMARILY
IN INFLUENCING WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THIS
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACTS AS A FIRE HOSE FOR CONVECTION TO
FIRE ALONG. WPC'S LATEST 5-DAY QPF PLACES A BROAD FOOTPRINT OF
2"+ FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND THE MAJORITY OF WI,
AS WELL AS A BULLSEYE OF 5"+ FOR SOUTHEASTERN MN. AS IT ALWAYS
DOES WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE
MORE SPORADIC THAN THIS FORECAST, BUT THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE IDEA
THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER A
SOMEWHAT CONFINED AREA AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY DOES NOT SHIFT
THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES FEW-SCT AT 25 KFT. A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA GETTING INTO MN BY 09Z WITH IMPACTS TO MKT
AND RWF BY 10Z WITH IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE
MORNING, REACHING MSP, STC, AXN BY 11Z WITH IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, THEN RNH AND EAU BY 12Z TO 13Z TIMEFRAME.
TEMPO GROUPS REMAIN IN TAF FOR VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-4 SM FROM
TSRA. AFTER THE CLUSTER OF TSRA PROGRESSES EASTWARD BY 13Z, SHRA
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SCT-BKN AT 5-10 KFT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW, PROB30S ARE IN THE TAFS ALLUDING TO
THAT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS STILL A BIT LOW WITH DIRECT
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS, BUT STILL SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE DAY.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PREVAILING
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE TAF AT 11Z, BUT KEPT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
WITH TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS FROM 11Z TO 13Z. WE WILL SEE IF I
CAN NARROW THAT WINDOW DOWN BY 9Z TAF AMD. WINDS LIGHT AOB 5
KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE PM. ANOTHER
ROUND OF TS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMING. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. HENCE THE PROB30 IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC PM MVFR/-TSRA. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS VRB 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...LPR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page