791
FXUS63 KMPX 010755
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
255 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS & BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON &
EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, & A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE SLOWER MOVING, SO A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN & FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT.
- WARM & MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
ANOTHER DAY & ANOTHER OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS WE YET
AGAIN WATCH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH MINNESOTA & IOWA
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH-END 70+ MPH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK AS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS COMPARED TO
THE ONES LAST NIGHT, BUT WE'RE STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50-60 MPH AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH-RES MODELS HINT AT SOME SIGNS OF
THE STORMS RE-INTENSIFYING BY MID-MORNING AS THEY BEGIN EXITING
EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AS WELL AS HAIL.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
FULLY CLEAR THE AREA OFF TO OUR EAST, SO THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME THY
THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN OUR EXPECTED ROUND 2 OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES MORE WITH JUST HOW FAR
NORTH WE MAY SEE THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPING, AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICING INSTABILITY FOR RE-INITIATION GIVEN THE
WARM & MUGGY CONDITIONS. NEARLY EVERY HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL
INITIATES STORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY 5-6 PM, WITH A
GENERALLY CONSENSUS FAVORING SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS A SOUTHWARDS SHIFT OF SORTS
FROM YESTERDAYS FORECASTS & OUTLOOKS, & WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE TRENDS FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT AS WE
GET INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY GIVEN INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 2000
J/KG (MORE LIKE 3000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN MN) ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE HIGH SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, BUT LARGE HAIL & A FEW TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH CAMS SUGGESTING A FEW ROTATING STORMS
PRESENT AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT DURING THE AFTERNOON & EARLY
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN & LOCALIZED FLASH-FLOODING
IS ALSO HIGHER WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS SINCE THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOWER-MOVING & CARRY A RISK
FOR TRAINING AS THUNDERSTORM RE-GNERATE ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
FRONT. HIGH-RESOLUTAION MODELS GENERALLY PLACE THE MOST EXTREME
THREAT FOR 5"+ RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS IOWA,
BUT THERE'S ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL PRESENT ACROSS OUR AREA TO EXPECT
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3-4" ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS & SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT GENERALLY WANES BY 10 PM-MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
LOOKING AHEAD - IT'LL BE MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS & MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM & HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. DETAILS ARE HEARD TO COME BY GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE
SUBTLE WAVES GENERATING THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES, & THE
ROLE ANY BOUNDARIES OR REMNANT CIRCULATIONS LEFT OVER BY THE,
HAVE ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM & MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT
GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES FEW-SCT AT 25 KFT. A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA GETTING INTO MN BY 09Z WITH IMPACTS TO MKT
AND RWF BY 10Z WITH IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE
MORNING, REACHING MSP, STC, AXN BY 11Z WITH IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, THEN RNH AND EAU BY 12Z TO 13Z TIMEFRAME.
TEMPO GROUPS REMAIN IN TAF FOR VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-4 SM FROM
TSRA. AFTER THE CLUSTER OF TSRA PROGRESSES EASTWARD BY 13Z, SHRA
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SCT-BKN AT 5-10 KFT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW, PROB30S ARE IN THE TAFS ALLUDING TO
THAT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS STILL A BIT LOW WITH DIRECT
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS, BUT STILL SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE DAY.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PREVAILING
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE TAF AT 11Z, BUT KEPT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
WITH TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS FROM 11Z TO 13Z. WE WILL SEE IF I
CAN NARROW THAT WINDOW DOWN BY 9Z TAF AMD. WINDS LIGHT AOB 5
KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE PM. ANOTHER
ROUND OF TS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMING. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. HENCE THE PROB30 IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC PM MVFR/-TSRA. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS VRB 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...LPR
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