461
FXUS63 KMPX 011150
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS & BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON &
EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, & A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE SLOWER MOVING, SO A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN & FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT.
- WARM & MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
ANOTHER DAY & ANOTHER OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS WE YET
AGAIN WATCH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH MINNESOTA & IOWA
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH-END 70+ MPH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK AS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS COMPARED TO
THE ONES LAST NIGHT, BUT WE'RE STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50-60 MPH AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH-RES MODELS HINT AT SOME SIGNS OF
THE STORMS RE-INTENSIFYING BY MID-MORNING AS THEY BEGIN EXITING
EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AS WELL AS HAIL.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
FULLY CLEAR THE AREA OFF TO OUR EAST, SO THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME THY
THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN OUR EXPECTED ROUND 2 OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES MORE WITH JUST HOW FAR
NORTH WE MAY SEE THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPING, AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICING INSTABILITY FOR RE-INITIATION GIVEN THE
WARM & MUGGY CONDITIONS. NEARLY EVERY HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL
INITIATES STORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY 5-6 PM, WITH A
GENERALLY CONSENSUS FAVORING SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS A SOUTHWARDS SHIFT OF SORTS
FROM YESTERDAYS FORECASTS & OUTLOOKS, & WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE TRENDS FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT AS WE
GET INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY GIVEN INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 2000
J/KG (MORE LIKE 3000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN MN) ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE HIGH SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, BUT LARGE HAIL & A FEW TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH CAMS SUGGESTING A FEW ROTATING STORMS
PRESENT AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT DURING THE AFTERNOON & EARLY
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN & LOCALIZED FLASH-FLOODING
IS ALSO HIGHER WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS SINCE THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOWER-MOVING & CARRY A RISK
FOR TRAINING AS THUNDERSTORM RE-GNERATE ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
FRONT. HIGH-RESOLUTAION MODELS GENERALLY PLACE THE MOST EXTREME
THREAT FOR 5"+ RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS IOWA,
BUT THERE'S ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL PRESENT ACROSS OUR AREA TO EXPECT
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3-4" ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS & SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT GENERALLY WANES BY 10 PM-MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
LOOKING AHEAD - IT'LL BE MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS & MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM & HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. DETAILS ARE HEARD TO COME BY GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE
SUBTLE WAVES GENERATING THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES, & THE
ROLE ANY BOUNDARIES OR REMNANT CIRCULATIONS LEFT OVER BY THE,
HAVE ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM & MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT
GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA, LASTING THROUGH MID-MORNING
TIMEFRAME. INSTANCES OF IFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH MID-
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITIES
AND LOW CIGS.
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 15-16Z WITH BKN TO OVC IN
IT'S WAKE. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT-BKN AT 5-10 KFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH S/SW WINDS OF 7-12 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW, PROB30S ARE IN THE
TAFS ALLUDING TO THAT. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS STILL A BIT
LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND WHAT TERMINALS WILL SEE DIRECT
IMPACTS.
KMSP...SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PREVAILING SHRA THROUGH
15Z, WITH TEMPO FOR 4SM AND -TSRA FROM 12-14Z FOR MSP. ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS DURING -TSRA. ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR
AND BE EAST OF THE VICINITY BY 15Z WITH BKN AT 5-10 KFT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT-BKN AT 5-10
KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH S/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROB30 TIMING
WAS PUSHED BACK TO 00-03Z, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS HIGH RES
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. HENCE THE PROB30
IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC PM MVFR/-TSRA. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS VRB 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...LPR
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