175
FXUS63 KMPX 011853
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS & BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON &
EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, & A FEW TORNADOES
ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE SLOWER MOVING, SO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
& FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT.
- WARM & MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
ANOTHER DAY & ANOTHER OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS WE YET
AGAIN WATCH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH MINNESOTA & IOWA
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH-END 70+ MPH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK AS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS COMPARED TO
THE ONES LAST NIGHT, BUT WE'RE STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50-60 MPH AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIRES MODELS HINT AT SOME SIGNS OF THE
STORMS RE-INTENSIFYING BY MID- MORNING AS THEY BEGIN EXITING
EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AS WELL AS HAIL.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
FULLY CLEAR THE AREA OFF TO OUR EAST, SO THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME BY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN OUR EXPECTED ROUND 2 OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES MORE WITH JUST HOW FAR
NORTH WE MAY SEE THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPING, AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR RE-INITIATION GIVEN THE
WARM & MUGGY CONDITIONS. NEARLY EVERY HI-RES MODEL INITIATES
STORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY 5-6 PM, WITH A GENERALLY
CONSENSUS FAVORING SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN
INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF SORTS FROM
YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS & OUTLOOKS, THUS WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE MESOSCALE TRENDS FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT AS WE GET INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY GIVEN INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG (MORE LIKE
3000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN MN) ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HIGH SHEAR
VALUES OF 35-40 KTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS,
BUT LARGE HAIL & A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH CAMS
SUGGESTING A FEW ROTATING STORMS PRESENT AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
EVENT DURING THE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN & LOCALIZED FLASH-FLOODING IS ALSO HIGHER WITH THE STORMS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS SINCE THESE STORMS WILL BE
SLOWER-MOVING & CARRY A RISK FOR TRAINING AS THUNDERSTORM
REGENERATE ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT. HI-RES MODELS GENERALLY
PLACE THE MOST EXTREME THREAT FOR 5"+ RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS IOWA, BUT THERE'S ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL PRESENT ACROSS
OUR AREA TO EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3-4" ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS &
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GENERALLY WANES BY 10PM TO MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
LOOKING AHEAD - IT'LL BE MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS & MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM & HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. DETAILS ARE HEARD TO COME BY GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE
SUBTLE WAVES GENERATING THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES, & THE ROLE
ANY BOUNDARIES OR REMNANT CIRCULATIONS LEFT OVER BY THE, HAVE ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM & MUGGY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE BUT THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT GENERALLY APPEARS
TO BE LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED POCKET OF MVFR CEILINGS WHICH MAY MOVE
ACROSS A TERMINAL BRIEFLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
TSRA STILL LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WHICH MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN-EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. BEST CHANCES ARE MKT-
MSP-EAU, SO HAVE RUN WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT THOSE SITES, WITH
LESSER CHANCES AT RWF-RNH SO HAVE USED PROB30 MENTION AT THOSE
SITES. LOWER CLOUDS SCOUR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF FOR SHRA/TSRA INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS TAF SET
SO THE NEXT FEW ROUTINE TAFS WILL HAVE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS THEN GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
KMSP...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE INHERITED 01/12Z TAF SET. DID UP
THE PRECIP MENTION FROM A PROB30 TO A TEMPO FOR THE 22Z-01Z
TIMEFRAME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PLACEMENT OF STORMS, BUT EVEN WITHIN THE 5MI RADIUS AROUND THE
TERMINAL, CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH THAT SCATTERED TSRA LATER
TODAY MAY IMPACT MSP EITHER DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL OR FLIGHT
PATHS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AND TSRA COULD PRODUCE SHARP WIND SHIFTS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS SETTLE
DOWN AND LOWER CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT SO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...SHRA LIKELY, CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 5-10KTS BECOMING E.
SAT...SHRA LIKELY, CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10KTS BECOMING NE.
SUN...VFR. WIND E 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC
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