276
FXUS63 KMPX 012350
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. HAIL, WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS, BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE UNCERTAIN.
- WARM & MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
ARE UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN. EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE IA/WI BORDER, AND RADAR SHOWED SOME
PRECIPITATION RETURNS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS AREA
HAD RECEIVED MORNING CONVECTION, AND THAT IS IMPORTANT SINCE
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THERE LATER TODAY.
FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT, LCLS ARE VERY LOW, AND THE SURFACE
WINDS HAVE AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS IS LEADING TO EFFECTIVE
HELICITY VALUES NEAR 200 M2/S2, BOTH OF WHICH SUPPORT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG I-90 AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS WE GO FORWARD IN TIME, THE SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER WITH TIME AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WOULD REDUCE THE TORNADIC THREAT, WHICH CAN BE VISUALIZED
IN THE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES DECREASING TO AROUND 100 M2/S2 BY
00Z THIS EVENING. SO THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A KEY IN
DETERMINING THE TORNADO THREAT LATER TODAY.
ASIDE FROM TORNADOES, THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY AROUND 7 C/KM, SO NOT ANTICIPATING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL, OR
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL TO PRODUCE HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. INSTEAD
EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH TYPICAL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
THE MOIST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INDICATIVE OF THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER, WITH VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES IN PLACE. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. AREAS
THAT ARE MOST AT RISK ARE ALONG I-90, WHERE THEY ALREADY HAD STORMS
THIS MORNING, AND COULD SEE TRAINING STORMS LATER TODAY AS WELL.
THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING,
SETTING UP A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
STEADY, MEANING ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, BUT LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS A TIME FRAME TO WATCH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WE EXPECT A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND EITHER MOVE INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
ON FRIDAY MORNING, OR DIVE SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS STORM WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT
IS DAMAGING WIND, WITH A SECONDARY THREAT TORNADOES AND HAIL.
LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR STORMS THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. AS WE TRANSITION TO NEXT WEEK,
THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT INCREASES. THE EC AND GFS
ENSEMBLES BOTH HAVE MULTIPLE MEMBERS WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEK. THIS INDICATES THAT MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. AND EACH ROUND WILL SATURATE SOILS, RESULTING
IN HIGHER RUNOFF POTENTIAL WITH THE NEXT ROUND. SO THE FLOODING
THREAT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOST SITES (MKT/EAU). MKT AND EAU SHOULD
SEE A FEW HOURS OF TSRA BEFORE DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. MSP AND
RNH WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT TS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SE OF THE
TERMINALS. WE WILL BE QUICK TO AMD IF STORMS DEVELOP FURTHER
NORTH THAN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT. LOWER CLOUDS SCOUR OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF FOR SHRA/TSRA INCREASE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THAT IS
BEYOND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS TAF SET. WINDS TURN LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
KMSP... PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THUNDERSTORMS MAKE IT THIS EVENING. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS WOULD SUPPORT THEM REMAINING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE TERMINAL BUT RECENT RADAR SCANS SUGGEST A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY
TRY TO STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST OF MSP TERMINAL. IF THESE CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN THAN WE'D NEED TO AMD IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO OF TSRA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...SHRA LIKELY, CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 5-10KTS BECOMING E.
SAT...SHRA LIKELY, CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10KTS BECOMING NE.
SUN...VFR. WIND E 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...BPH
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