791
FXUS63 KMPX 020551
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. HAIL, WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS, BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE UNCERTAIN.
- WARM & MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
ARE UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN. EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE IA/WI BORDER, AND RADAR SHOWED SOME
PRECIPITATION RETURNS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS AREA
HAD RECEIVED MORNING CONVECTION, AND THAT IS IMPORTANT SINCE
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THERE LATER TODAY.
FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT, LCLS ARE VERY LOW, AND THE SURFACE
WINDS HAVE AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS IS LEADING TO EFFECTIVE
HELICITY VALUES NEAR 200 M2/S2, BOTH OF WHICH SUPPORT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG I-90 AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS WE GO FORWARD IN TIME, THE SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER WITH TIME AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WOULD REDUCE THE TORNADIC THREAT, WHICH CAN BE VISUALIZED
IN THE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES DECREASING TO AROUND 100 M2/S2 BY
00Z THIS EVENING. SO THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A KEY IN
DETERMINING THE TORNADO THREAT LATER TODAY.
ASIDE FROM TORNADOES, THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY AROUND 7 C/KM, SO NOT ANTICIPATING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL, OR
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL TO PRODUCE HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. INSTEAD
EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH TYPICAL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
THE MOIST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INDICATIVE OF THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER, WITH VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES IN PLACE. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. AREAS
THAT ARE MOST AT RISK ARE ALONG I-90, WHERE THEY ALREADY HAD STORMS
THIS MORNING, AND COULD SEE TRAINING STORMS LATER TODAY AS WELL.
THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING,
SETTING UP A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
STEADY, MEANING ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, BUT LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS A TIME FRAME TO WATCH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WE EXPECT A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND EITHER MOVE INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
ON FRIDAY MORNING, OR DIVE SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS STORM WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT
IS DAMAGING WIND, WITH A SECONDARY THREAT TORNADOES AND HAIL.
LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR STORMS THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. AS WE TRANSITION TO NEXT WEEK,
THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT INCREASES. THE EC AND GFS
ENSEMBLES BOTH HAVE MULTIPLE MEMBERS WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEK. THIS INDICATES THAT MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. AND EACH ROUND WILL SATURATE SOILS, RESULTING
IN HIGHER RUNOFF POTENTIAL WITH THE NEXT ROUND. SO THE FLOODING
THREAT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SKC TO FEW250
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOW AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI THIS MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR WESTERN
WI TERMINALS. THEREFORE, TEMPO FOR FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO RNH AND
EAU FROM 09-12Z WITH VIS REDUCTIONS OF 3 MILES OR LOWER. IF VIS
DROPS TO IFR OR LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR RNH AND EAU, TAF
AMENDS WILL BE NEEDED, BUT FOR NOW EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI. WINDS LIGHT AT AOB 5
KNOTS AND VRB OR SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10 KNOTS. GUIDANCE IS
ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. THAT SAID, HREF ENSEMBLE
REFLECTIVITY > 40DBZ PAINTBALL OUTPUT SHOWS A NOT SO CONFIDENT
DEPICTION OF EVENING STORMS, THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. HENCE NO MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. UPDATES WILL BE
LIKELY AT FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WHEN HIGH RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
ACTIVITY A LITTLE BETTER.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
HOURS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS LIGHT AOB 5 KNOTS AND
VRB OR SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION, WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. SKIES WILL BE SKC TO
FEW250 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT250 DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FEW AT 5-10 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING E.
SAT...CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS NE 5-10 KNOTS.
SUN...CHC AM SHRA/TSRA. PM VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KNOTS
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...LPR
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