623
FXUS63 KMPX 020831
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
331 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS & LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS FAR-SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT & THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
- WARM & MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT ACROSS FAR-SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONSTANTLY REGENERATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA & SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, BUT NE DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING
TO SPREAD NORTHWARDS OUT OF NORTHERN IOWA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SLOW- MOVING, MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2" AN HOUR GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SOME AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 4"
BY THE TIME THE THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO WANE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH WARMER TEMEPRATURES NEAR
90 DEGREES AS THE PRECIPITATION & CLOUD COVER MOSTLY REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY, BUT
NOT EXCESSIVELY SO WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID-90S. CAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG WILL
BUILD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG WIT DEEP SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 30 KTS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS, WHERE THEY WILL MERGE INTO A
LINE OR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS & EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. IT'S UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHEN &
WHERE THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK IS IT MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS WEEK. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW SPIN-UP TORNADOES. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT, BUT
WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRACKS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
HAVE A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, WHERE A SEPARATE AREA OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WANING AFTER SUNRISE WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. BUT WAIT! THERE'S MORE! ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
FRIDAY EVENING & TRACK EASTWARDS THROUGH MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN
DURING THE NIGHT. THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT THE MUGGY DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE.
PRETTY TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WEATHER AROUND THESE PARTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DODGE SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS BUT THE CHANCE FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX & SEVERE WEATHER DOES LOOK LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW DRY DAYS DEVELOP
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKING-FROWARD, NO END IN SITE TO THE WARM
& MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MORE OF THE SAME CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SKC TO FEW250
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOW AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI THIS MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR WESTERN
WI TERMINALS. THEREFORE, TEMPO FOR FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO RNH AND
EAU FROM 09-12Z WITH VIS REDUCTIONS OF 3 MILES OR LOWER. IF VIS
DROPS TO IFR OR LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR RNH AND EAU, TAF
AMENDS WILL BE NEEDED, BUT FOR NOW EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI. WINDS LIGHT AT AOB 5
KNOTS AND VRB OR SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10 KNOTS. GUIDANCE IS
ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. THAT SAID, HREF ENSEMBLE
REFLECTIVITY > 40DBZ PAINTBALL OUTPUT SHOWS A NOT SO CONFIDENT
DEPICTION OF EVENING STORMS, THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. HENCE NO MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. UPDATES WILL BE
LIKELY AT FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WHEN HIGH RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
ACTIVITY A LITTLE BETTER.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
HOURS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS LIGHT AOB 5 KNOTS AND
VRB OR SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION, WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. SKIES WILL BE SKC TO
FEW250 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT250 DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FEW AT 5-10 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING E.
SAT...CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS NE 5-10 KNOTS.
SUN...CHC AM SHRA/TSRA. PM VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KNOTS
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...LPR
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