710
FXUS63 KMPX 021753
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1253 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS & LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS FAR-SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT & THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
- WARM & MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT ACROSS FAR-SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONSTANTLY REGENERATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA & SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, BUT NE DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING
TO SPREAD NORTHWARDS OUT OF NORTHERN IOWA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SLOW- MOVING, MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2" AN HOUR GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. SOME AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 4"
BY THE TIME THE THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO WANE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH WARMER TEMEPRATURES NEAR
90 DEGREES AS THE PRECIPITATION & CLOUD COVER MOSTLY REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY, BUT
NOT EXCESSIVELY SO WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID-90S. CAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG WILL
BUILD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG WIT DEEP SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 30 KTS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS, WHERE THEY WILL MERGE INTO A
LINE OR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS & EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. IT'S UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHEN &
WHERE THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK IS IT MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS WEEK. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW SPIN-UP TORNADOES. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT, BUT
WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRACKS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
HAVE A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, WHERE A SEPARATE AREA OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WANING AFTER SUNRISE WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. BUT WAIT! THERE'S MORE! ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
FRIDAY EVENING & TRACK EASTWARDS THROUGH MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN
DURING THE NIGHT. THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT THE MUGGY DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE.
PRETTY TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WEATHER AROUND THESE PARTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DODGE SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS BUT THE CHANCE FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX & SEVERE WEATHER DOES LOOK LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW DRY DAYS DEVELOP
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKING-FROWARD, NO END IN SITE TO THE WARM
& MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MORE OF THE SAME CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED STORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, AND UNCERTAINTY ON
SPECIFIC PLACEMENT. ON A LARGER SCALE, WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE/SOUTHERLY AND AOB 10 KNOTS. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT THE MID-LEVEL, WITH FEW AROUND THE
030-050 LEVEL LIKELY WITH CONVECTION. THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF OUTCOMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROB30S ARE PRESENT AT
ALL TAFS SITES AT SOME POINT THIS PERIOD FOR THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE
EARLY MORNING TIMEFRAME TOMORROW, SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, AS
WELL AS WITH ANY PASSING STORMS/HEAVY RAIN.
KMSP...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING,
WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
THAT COULD IMPACT MSP BETWEEN 1930-2100Z. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER
IS LOW AS THE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS MSP. AS
SUCH, MAINTAINED A SHORT DURATION PROB30 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MINIMAL WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, AOB 10 KNOTS AND VRB OR
SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION, BUT IN GENERAL WINDS ARE OF LOW
CONCERN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BRIEF
DIPS TO LOW END VFR AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, POTENTIALLY FEW
MVFR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHEN AND
WHERE IS LOW. PROB30 EXIST IN THE TAF FOR MSP LATE THIS EVENING
FOR THIS THREAT, EXPECT THIS TO BE REFINED AS THE TIME NEARS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING E.
SAT...CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS NE 5-10 KNOTS.
SUN...CHC AM SHRA/TSRA. PM VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KNOTS
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...PV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page