282
FXUS63 KMPX 021907
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
207 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.
- WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
AH, THE CHALLENGES OF FORECASTING SUMMER CONVECTION! THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SATELLITE PICTURE IS FAIRLY BUSY, WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
DEBRIS OVER SOUTHERN MN & WESTERN WI FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S
STORMS. FACTOR IN THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE PRESENCE OF A FEW
REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE FORECAST TAKES A RATHER COMPLEX TURN,
WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE ON ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WINDOWS
AND ANTICIPATED INTENSITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE LARGE SCALE VIEW
DISPLAYS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE UPPER MIDWEST IS POSITIONED WITHIN A REGION OF ZONAL WSW
FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SEVERAL "RIPPLES"
WITHIN THE FLOW THAT ARE CAPABLE OF INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
THESE CAN BE A CHALLENGE TO RESOLVE IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENTS
WHICH IS LIKELY WHY WE'VE CONTINUED TO OBSERVE RUN TO RUN CHANGES
ACROSS THE CAM SUITE. THE BEST PATH FORWARD IS TO PAIR THE ANTICIPATED
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE REAL TIME SURFACE TRENDS, WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A DOWNGRADE OF SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES FROM SPC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK TRIMMED THE
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. A MORE
EXPANSIVE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MN
RIVER TO ROUGHLY THE I-94 CORRIDOR IN MN/WI AND A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) COVERS EAST CENTRAL MN AND THE REST OF WESTERN WI.
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR DISPLAYS THE EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE
MORNING STORMS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN. STRONGER STORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND WILL MOVE EAST, AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST
AREA. BACK TO THE WEST, IR SATELLITE SUCCESSFUL ATTEMPTS AT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WHICH ARE TIED TO A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED WSW FLOW ALOFT. IT'S
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. CAMS OFFER A MYRIAD OF SOLUTIONS,
FROM A WELL-DEFINED MCS OR TWO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-
MOVING/TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE
ESE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN/NORTHWESTERN IA
THIS EVENING ALONG AN EXISTING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THESE
STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND ARE TIED TO THE ENHANCED RISK THAT WAS
SHIFTED LARGELY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A NEW
SEVERE T-STORM WATCH WAS RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS EASTERN SD TO
CAPTURE THESE TRENDS. CAMS HIGHLIGHT ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING
AND ADVANCING FROM WESTERN MN INTO CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING,
WHICH MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND & LARGE HAIL THREAT OWING TO
2000-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ~30KTS.
THE OTHER PIECE OF THE ONGOING PUZZLE IS THE HYDRO SCENARIO,
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING/TRAINING OF STORMS AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE SOUPY ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY A
NEARLY 2 SIGMA PWAT ANOMALY. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/I-90 WHERE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED THIS MORNING. FOLLOWING LATEST
TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE THAT PLACE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS SOUTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER TONIGHT, WE HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN
FROM ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. WE WILL PUNT TO
THE EVENING SHIFT FOR AN ADDITIONAL LOOK AT BOUNDARY PLACEMENT
AND TRENDS TO THE WEST AND MAY EXPAND THE WATCH THAT RUNS UP THE
MN/IA IF NECESSARY.
LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TONIGHT LIKELY CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WHICH ONCE AGAIN INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF POP WINDOWS. WE'LL TAKE A BLEND OF CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE AND
RUN WITH A FORECAST THAT FEATURES 20-30% POPS IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S AND WILL PAIR WITH LOW 70S DEW POINTS
FOR ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH AND INCREASED HUMIDITY. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TOMORROW EVENING AND MAY FORCE YET ANOTHER COMPLEX/ES
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL THREAT.
THE 4TH OF JULY WILL LIKELY FEATURE ONGOING CONVECTION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO OPEN THE DAY TIED
TO FRIDAY NIGHT'S STORMS. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF STORMS,
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT MAY SUPPORT
A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT. DO ANTICIPATE SOME DRY TIME FOLLOWING
THE MORNING STORMS AND COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN
THE DAY SHOULD BE LIMITED, SAY SCATTERED AT BEST, GIVEN A LACK
OF A LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM. THE WARM, HUMID, MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL FUEL THE POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HOWEVER
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS CURRENTLY LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP SUNDAY-TUESDAY, AS
~588DM RIDGING EXPANDS NORTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 80S THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING IS ACCOMPANIED BY
THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED STORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, AND UNCERTAINTY ON
SPECIFIC PLACEMENT. ON A LARGER SCALE, WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE/SOUTHERLY AND AOB 10 KNOTS. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT THE MID-LEVEL, WITH FEW AROUND THE
030-050 LEVEL LIKELY WITH CONVECTION. THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF OUTCOMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROB30S ARE PRESENT AT
ALL TAFS SITES AT SOME POINT THIS PERIOD FOR THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE
EARLY MORNING TIMEFRAME TOMORROW, SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, AS
WELL AS WITH ANY PASSING STORMS/HEAVY RAIN.
KMSP...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING,
WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
THAT COULD IMPACT MSP BETWEEN 1930-2100Z. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER
IS LOW AS THE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS MSP. AS
SUCH, MAINTAINED A SHORT DURATION PROB30 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MINIMAL WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, AOB 10 KNOTS AND VRB OR
SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION, BUT IN GENERAL WINDS ARE OF LOW
CONCERN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BRIEF
DIPS TO LOW END VFR AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, POTENTIALLY FEW
MVFR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHEN AND
WHERE IS LOW. PROB30 EXIST IN THE TAF FOR MSP LATE THIS EVENING
FOR THIS THREAT, EXPECT THIS TO BE REFINED AS THE TIME NEARS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING E.
SAT...CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS NE 5-10 KNOTS.
SUN...CHC AM SHRA/TSRA. PM VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KNOTS
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...PV
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