104
FXUS63 KMPX 030800
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, FAVORING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY RISKS.
- A LULL IN STORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK, RETURNING MIDWEEK.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
ABOVE A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AS OF AROUND
230AM, WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STORMS JUST SLIDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATE BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE NORTHERN EDGE
WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH THIS MORNING AS OUR CHANCE FOR STORMS IS
LARGELY TIED TO THE ONGOING STORMS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES,
WITH FORCING GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA ASIDE FROM THIS. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY STRUGGLED TO FULLY CAPTURE THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE MORNING WITH SOME LIKE THE HRRR SHOWING
FAR TOO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AMIDST WHAT IS MOSTLY CAPPED UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY, WITH OTHERS SUCH AS THE RRFS SHOWING NEXT TO NOTHING
EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THE VERTICAL
DISPLACEMENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS
THAT HAS RESULTED IN A TRICKY FORECAST, WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARDS AS IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THE STORMS IN
IOWA, HOWEVER ALOFT THE BOUNDARY IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THIS LEAVES
OUR SOUTHERN COVERAGE AREA WEDGED BETWEEN THE MORE BOUNTIFUL
INSTABILITY WHICH IS MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT LEAVES ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BE CONCERNED FOR STORM
CHANCES. THE GRID PHILOSOPHY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN TO BROAD BRUSH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPREAD OF STORMS THIS FAR NORTH. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME
ISOLATED CELLS POSSIBLE, BUT GENERALLY WE EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS
ARRIVING LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
THE STORM CHANCES TOMORROW NIGHT COULD TAKE MULTIPLE DIFFERENT FORMS
AS THERE IS ZERO CONSENSUS AS TO HOW THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL GO.
THE HRRR/RRFS PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY, BUT GENERALLY KEEP THE OVERALL ACTIVITY MUTED AS WE END UP
WITH ANOTHER -200 CIN LAYER CUTTING OFF SURFACE INSTABILITY, WITH
MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2500 WITHIN VARIOUS MODELS GENERALLY ABOVE
800-750MB. THE NAM SUITE TRIES TO PRODUCE A PAIR OF MCS COMPLEXES
OVER NODAK/NEBRASKA WHICH BISECT THE AREA, HOWEVER THIS SEEMS LESS
LIKELY GIVEN OUR PROMINENT CAPPING INVERSION. NO MATTER THE SHAPE,
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW LOOK TO PRIMARILY BE A HEAVY RAIN,
THUNDER, AND ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT DUE TO THE CAP, WITH HEAVY
RAIN OVER ALREADY RAIN SOAKED SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BEING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS. NOT TO BE OUTDONE, THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A CHANCE FOR AN MCS TYPE FEATURE OVERNIGHT, WITH
BOTH THE GEFS/EPS SUITES SHOWING DECENT CHANCES. UNTIL WE ACTUALLY
SEE STORM FORMATION TO OUR WEST, THIS WILL REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST, BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO BE WOKEN UP BY SOME HEAVY RAIN
OR THUNDER TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE THERMODYNAMICS GENERALLY SUPPORT
ELEVATED STORMS. AFTER ANY MORNING STORMS ROLL THROUGH, THE SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST, WHICH
SHOULD OPEN UP CONDITIONS TO BE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME FURTHER AIRMASS PULSE TYPE STORMS AS WE STILL MAINTAIN SOME
INSTABILITY, HOWEVER WITHOUT THE FORCING FROM THE BOUNDARY IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THAT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY HIGH. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE AREA-WIDE GENERAL THUNDER FOR THE ENTIRE
STATES OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FOR THE HOLIDAY.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY AND TO START THE WEEK,
BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AS OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKES A
MORE NORTHERLY TILT. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES
LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS OUR FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ONCE AGAIN, WITH FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BASE
FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD PRODUCE YET ANOTHER BROAD
SURFACE FRONT THAT LINGERS IN THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN INDIVIDUAL STORM SYSTEMS AND
TIMING. THE MAIN IMPACT OF SAID BOUNDARY WOULD BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S. SO WHILE WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANOTHER STRETCH OF HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100S, IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
WISE FOR THIS TIME IN JULY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THIS PERIOD, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN IOWA,
WITH THE ELEVATED CAPE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THIS LEAVES
US STUCK IN BETWEEN WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR DEEP
CONVECTION, BUT NO REAL FOCUS FOR SAID CONVECTION. THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY WANT TO BLOW UP A CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER SOUTHERN MN BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT WE'RE HAVING TROUBLE
BUYING THAT GIVEN WHAT WE'RE SEEING WITH THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OUT BY YANKTON AND THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT
STAYS IN IOWA AND THERE REALLY IS NO GOOD PUSH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO REALLY HELP SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS. ONLY HELD ON TO A TS MENTION (PROB30) AT MKT AS POSSIBLY
WE SEE SOME CONVECTION SNEAK OUT OF IOWA, BUT FOR NOW, WILL KEEP
THINGS OPTIMISTIC WHEN IT COMES TO CONVECTION. WHERE WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME ISSUES AGAIN IN CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI IS
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH THAT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WE SEE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY, WE
COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, BUT WITH NO
REAL FORCING MECHANISM TO HANG OUR HATS ON, WE KEPT ANY
ADDITIONAL TS MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IN SUMMARY, IF
YOU WERE LOOKING FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE TAFS, YOU CAME TO THE WRONG
CWA!
KMSP...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE'RE HAVING TROUBLE BUYING INTO THE
CONVECTIVE BLOWUP THE HRRR HAS TOWARD SUNRISE (WHICH THE AWC
LEANED HEAVILY INTO FOR THE 11Z CONVECTIVE FORECAST THEY HAVE),
SO WE CONTINUED TO THE TREND OF NO TS MENTION IN THE MSP TAF.
BIGGER CONCERN FOR FRIDAY MORNING MAY END UP BEING FOG/STRATUS
IN THE REGION POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME REDUCED VIS/CIGS IN AROUND
SUNRISE. YOU REALLY CAN'T RULE OUT TS POTENTIAL AT ANY POINT IN
THIS PERIOD, BUT UNTIL WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHERE
STORMS WILL BE NEAR MSP, WE'VE OPTED TO KEEP THAT MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS SE BCMG NW 5-10 KNOTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KNOTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KNOTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...MPG
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